McGee: How I'll play Monmouth Park on Saturday, July 1
Favorites entered this week at Monmouth winning at a 41 percent clip (75 for 181), and it looks like they could dominate the 11-race United Nations card Saturday, including the big race itself.
Using alternates or spreads in the occasional spot, I’ll try to take down both the early (races 1-5) and late (races 7-11) pick fives when relying primarily on favorites. Here’s the rationale:
Race 1: AMACE (5) recently returned from a Jorge Navarro regrouping with an easy win in a tiny field and ought to repeat right back.
Race 2: GLORIOUS MOMENT (2), Navarro again, faces a woefully weak field when well drawn and dropping in class while going from turf to dirt.
Race 3: ONE TOUGH ANGEL (2) might find herself all alone out front when exiting more difficult turf sprints. She’s a single, too.
Race 4: Hoping to be alive with a live natural hat trick, I’ll spread liberally in the last two races when separating into A’s and B’s. The outside trio of UN PO DI VINO (5), NELLIE MAC (6), and THIRTYDAYSINJUNE (7) are the main punches here.
Race 5: Similarly, we’ll play it mostly safe here by using all but one rank outsider, making LIANA SUSQUEHANNA (1), TRUE PLEASURE (3), and LOYA (5) the A plays.
:: See Marty McGee's early pick-five ticket in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets.
Race 7: We’ll invert the pyramid for this second pick-five sequence, spreading in the first two races before ending with three straight singles. Let’s start here with FROSTY MARGARITA (6), the obvious class, as the lone A play while also making sure to stay alive with the uncoupled O’Connell pair LU LU LAURA (3) and STORMY EMBRACE (5) as B’s and the remaining three entities as C’s.
Race 8: ROBUSTO (7) surely will be lower than his 2-1 morning line when armed with superior Beyer Speed Figures for the Pletcher juggernaut, but we’ll protect against a possible disappointment (after all, Todd was off to an 0-for-14 start to this meet) by using several B’s: FINGLAS (2), CONVIVIAL (4), and BRIANBAKESCOOKIES (9).
Race 9: Here’s Navarro again, this time with GREAT LOU (1), who could be long gone before they know it if he’s up to anything close to his June 3 comeback, in which he earned a 91 Beyer.
Race 10: HOCKEY SCHOOL (8) has met far better competition in recent months than what he’ll face in this 2x turf allowance, and with a clean start, he should have every opportunity to prove his superiority. Another single.
Race 11: BEACH PATROL (1) figures considerably lower than the 5-2 odds displayed on the track morning line, but let’s just hope his class shows and Florent Geroux can work out the right kind of trip from his rail post so as to close this out.
:: See Marty McGee's late pick-five ticket and bet it with DRF Bets.
