Matt Bernier's 2019 Kentucky Derby analysis

WIN WIN WIN is a confirmed closer who is dependent on a swift pace in order to run his best. Luckily for him, it appears that is what he will get in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The most recent effort from Win Win Win is better than it appears on paper, as he was stopped badly rounding the far turn before regaining his stride and finishing a strong second in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Had he not been forced to check as sharply as he did, the final margin of defeat would have been considerably smaller than it was. Based on prior works, it appears Win Win Win is entering the Derby in good form and should offer a square price.

ROADSTER has never encountered a wet track, so if the main track does indeed have moisture in it, that is a bit of an unknown for this Bob Baffert trainee. Following a dull third-place finish in last year’s Del Mar Futurity, Roadster had a surgical procedure to help alleviate a breathing issue. In two starts since, he’s been flawless, winning both races in impressive fashion. He has a versatile running style that should work to his advantage.

Every year it seems as though there’s one horse that captures clockers’ attention in the mornings leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and this year’s darling appears to be BY MY STANDARDS. Winner of the Louisiana Derby on March 23, this son of Goldencents seems to be thriving at Churchill Downs leading up to Derby 145, and his ability to sit off the pace before commencing his bid should be beneficial. The final furlong could be a bit of a question for By My Standards based on his pedigree, but he didn’t appear to be slowing down at the end of his final prep and continues to improve.

GAME WINNER returns to the scene of his biggest victory to date, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Winless in two starts as a 3-year-old, this Baffert trainee has run well in both efforts, finishing second to Omaha Beach (who would have been the Derby favorite) and his uncoupled stablemate, Roadster. While his figures haven’t improved from 2 to 3 at this point, there’s reason to believe he’s sitting on a peak effort Saturday.