Up to the Mark seeks to give Pletcher first Manhattan Stakes win
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Just after Up to the Mark’s powerful victory in the Old Forester Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, was asked if he’d trained another horse whose star had so quickly risen after a switch from dirt to turf.
“Colonel Liam comes to mind,” Pletcher said.
Colonel Liam raced twice on dirt before a move to grass turned his career around. He dead-heated for first in the 2021 Old Forester Turf Classic. Up to the Mark’s connections hope the parallel ends there. Colonel Liam returned to finish a dull eighth in the Manhattan Stakes, a race Up to the Mark is expected to win Saturday at Belmont Park.
Up to the Mark is one of 10 in the 1 1/4-mile Manhattan, which came up hollow for a major Grade 1, $750,000 race. Pletcher has never won the Manhattan, and as good as Colonel Liam had gotten in 2021, Up to the Mark is his best chance.
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Four-year-old Up to the Mark won his career debut over the Saratoga slop last summer, but after four main-track defeats, Pletcher, who’d never even worked the colt on turf, switched him to grass on Jan. 28. Bingo. Up to the Mark won a first-level allowance by four lengths, overcame a tough trip to capture a higher-class allowance, then finished a strong third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile. Just a neck separated him from 2022 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Modern Games in a race dominated by Chez Pierre.
One mile might be on the short side for Up to the Mark, who excelled in the Old Forester Turf Classic in his first try as far as 1 1/8 miles. Stalking the pace under regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., Up to the Mark swept to the lead running his fourth quarter-mile in 23.16 seconds, easily best in the field, before finishing with a final furlong in 11.87. Pletcher believes the Manhattan’s added furlong won’t be an issue. Maybe that’s true.
However, Up to the Mark has done his grass racing over small, tight-turning courses, and with 10 furlongs at vast Belmont Park comes an entirely different dynamic. Moreover, Up to the Mark hit a career peak last out making his ninth start with no more than six weeks between races; he’ll regress at some point.
And what of the competition behind him at Churchill? Runner-up Hong Kong Harry returned to finish a tepid third in the Shoemaker Mile. Third-place Spooky Channel is a solid Grade 3 type.
Yet the Manhattan isn’t much tougher. Up to the Mark is one of only three Grade 1 winners entered along with Red Knight and Rockemperor. Nine-year-old Red Knight got his Grade 1 on May 13, when he landed the Man o’ War Stakes in his 34th career start. That came at 1 3/8 miles, and the last time Red Knight ran a grass race as short as 1 1/4 miles was in September 2019, when he was fifth facing New York-bred competition.
Seven-year-old Rockemperor’s Grade 1 came in the September 2021 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic over 1 1/2 miles at Belmont. This is his fourth try at the Manhattan, following fifth-place finishes the last two years and a close second in 2020.
He does have the Brown factor going for him. Trainer Chad Brown has won the last four renewals of the Manhattan and eight of the last 11. Rockemperor was a mild fourth last out in the Fort Marcy Stakes and is 12-1 on the morning line, a shorter price than Brown’s second entrant, 20-1 Highest Honors.
The Fort Marcy winner, Ottoman Fleet, is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line, and he also is suspect. Trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin, and with Godolphin’s top rider, William Buick, in to take the mount, Ottoman Fleet will take plenty of betting despite the Manhattan marking his Grade 1 debut. He got a great trip beating 56-1 shot Tide of the Sea in the Fort Marcy, and third-place finisher City Man returned to eke out a New York-bred stakes win.
Appleby’s second entrant, Warren Point, had a tough trip in the Man o’ War but still should have finished better than fifth at a ridiculously low price of 3-5. He was an unlucky second in the Group 1 Amir Trophy 3 1/2 months ago in Qatar, but while that race’s winner, Russian Emperor, is a top 12-furlong horse in Hong Kong, he went from Qatar to finish a distant eighth in the Sheema Classic in Dubai.
Ocean Atlantique looks like little more than a pacemaker for his stablemate Red Knight. He’ll have front-end company from class-rising Strong Quality, who battled a foot abscess following a last-start Keeneland allowance win, trainer Mark Casse said. Soldier Rising has an outside chance but wants 1 1/2 miles. So High is an outsider with next to no chance.
Up to the Mark doesn’t have to hit an especially high mark to ace this Manhattan.
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