Maiden races might contain a diamond in the rough

ARCADIA, Calif. – If an undiscovered gem is lurking in Southern California, he or she might be running in one of the four interesting maiden races Friday at Santa Anita.

He could be 3-year-old colt Thales, purchased for $1.25 million last year and finally making his debut in race 2. She might be well-regarded juvenile filly Ballet Dancing. If she wins her debut in race 5, fine. If she runs well but misses, fine also.

Or maybe Friday is graduation day for a 2-year-old colt making his third start, such as well-bred Barossa in race 8, or California-bred Fore Flag in race 9. The dilemma Friday is choosing between proven form and untapped potential.

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Race 2 features the long-awaited debut of Thales, a Quality Road colt purchased by Kaleem Shah for $1.25 million at a 2020 spring sale of 2-year-olds. Simon Callaghan trains Thales, who began racetrack training this past summer and will race seven furlongs on dirt first out. Thales could win, but probably is prepping.

Essential Wager and Miacomet, fast-working firsters trained by Bob Baffert, have been inseparable in team works. They drew posts 1 and 3, while Baffert’s thrice-beaten favorite Vetoed drew post 2.

Affable and Disco Ball enter with proven form, and though both are five-start maidens, Affable is the race’s most likely winner based on his dirt-sprint Beyer Figures – 84, 81 and 81. Par for older maidens at Santa Anita is 84. Disco Ball ran for the first time in nine months on Sept. 19 at Los Alamitos. He might have won the six-furlong sprint, but he stumbled at the start, was rushed up, and finished second.

Race 5 marks the debut of Callaghan-trained Ballet Dancing, a Medaglia d’Oro 2-year-old filly racing a mile on turf against more-experienced runners Toeris and Empire d’Oro. Callaghan expects Ballet Dancing to improve with age, which does not preclude a debut victory.

“She’s a big filly who’s going to be a better 3-year-old, with a late-developing family,” Callaghan said.

He said Ballet Dancing is on turf because “her works at Santa Anita on the deep, tiring dirt weren’t what I was seeing at Del Mar.”

“That led to me running a filly on turf that probably is more dirt-bred,” Callaghan said. “We’re looking for a nice first race from her.”

Toeris, trained by Mark Casse, exits Saratoga maiden races that included subsequent stakes winners Bubble Rock and Consumer Spending. Toeris, third last out, might be the one to beat. Empire d’Oro ran well finishing sixth in her only start and should improve.

Race 8, at one mile, includes Barossa, third after pressing a blazing pace at a mile on dirt at Del Mar. Sired by Into Mischief, Barossa runs Friday over a speed-friendly surface – 11 of the 13 winners in dirt routes this meet were positioned one-two early.

Breakfast Ride stretches out from a creditable fourth-place debut; Durante is speed on the rail; Noble Union split the field in his debut, which came at a mile on turf.

Race 9 is a Cal-bred turf mile. Fore Flag is the likely favorite after a finishing a modest third in a similar spot. My Mane Champ drops from a stakes race for his second start.