Magician can give O'Brien third Arlington Million win
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has sent a horse to the Arlington Million six times, and that horse has crossed the finish line first three times. Magician was the surprise winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf last fall at Santa Anita, but it will be no surprise if he gives O’Brien a record-tying third Million win Saturday at Arlington.
O’Brien already would have joined Ron McAnally as the only three-time Million-winning trainers, but Powerscourt was disqualified from his 2004 victory. The horse came back the next summer to make amends, O’Brien won the 2011 Million with Cape Blanco, and Magician looks equally formidable facing six foes Saturday.
Magician is 7-5 on the Arlington morning line, with Real Solution the 5-2 second choice. Real Solution is the race’s defending champion, though his victory last year came when The Apache was disqualified for stretch interference.
The Million, which offers a Win and You're In berth to Breeders' Cup, has seen an unusual number of recent disqualifications – three in the last 11 years. Storming Home also was taken down in a wild 2003 renewal.
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Magician was a 12-1 shot when he rallied from the back of the pack to beat The Fugue in the Breeders’ Cup Turf under Ryan Moore. O’Brien’s son, Joseph, has the mount Saturday and can win his first Million.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 3 Magician. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is 10 for 37 with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years in North American Grade 1 turf routes.Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Post time for the Million is 5:36 p.m. Central. The race will be televised by WGN, and HRTV has a crew on hand. The Million is the 10th of 12 races on a card that starts at 12:30 p.m. and is the cashing leg of a $200,000-guaranteed all-stakes 50-cent pick four. A $100,000-guaranteed 50-cent pick five starts with race 8.
Preceding the Million are the $750,000 Beverly D. Stakes, the $500,000 Secretariat Stakes, and the $400,000 American St. Leger Stakes. Stephanie’s Kitten is the mild 7-2 morning-line choice among 11 horses in a contentious edition of the Beverly D., while O’Brien has the Secretariat favorite in Adelaide and a potentially live St. Leger runner in Eye of The Storm. Dandino, the 2013 St. Leger winner, returns for a repeat bid.
There are 12 overseas shippers here, and besides Joseph O’Brien, Moore has come to ride, as have Frankie Dettori and Jamie Spencer. Javier Castellano and Joel Rosario are among several jockeys in from New York. It’s no certainty they’ll stay dry. The weather this week has been lovely but will change Friday night, and there’s a 50-50 chance of Saturday storms.
Magician must run a different kind of race than in the Breeders’ Cup, where he came with a flying finish behind a fast pace. In the 1 1/4-mile Million, there’s no real speed, with Side Glance and Hardest Core the leading candidates to command a dawdling tempo. The septet should be tightly bunched turning for home, and whichever steed avoids trouble and produces the best late burst will be crowned late Saturday afternoon.
Key contenders
Magician (First 2014 North American start)
* His most important win, in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, came over 1 1/2 miles, but Magician is better suited to the Million’s 1 1/4 miles. His two poorest finishes this year, sixths in the Dubai Sheema Classic and July 26 in the King George Stakes, came over 1 1/2 miles, and Magician faced deeper, stronger competition than he does Saturday.
* Magician might be at his best racing left-handed, the direction of travel in North America, and he appears to prefer firm course conditions. Rain would do him no favors.
Real Solution (Last 3 Beyers: 102-97-82)
* Failed to finish first in six North American starts before finally breaking through June 7 in the Manhattan at Belmont, where he beat, among others, the talented Seek Again.
“In the mornings, he’s such a great work horse. It had been a little frustrating he hadn’t won, knowing how talented he is,” said trainer Chad Brown. “I think part of it was circumstantial, where it gave the appearance he was hanging, and other times, he might really have been hanging, but last time, he really finished the race the way we thought he would.”
* Real Solution hasn’t raced in more than two months but came into the 2013 Million on the same pattern.
“It worked last year, so I thought it would be wise to take the same approach,” Brown said.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 6 Real Solution. Trainer Chad Brown is 3 for 28 with a $0.69 ROI over the past five years in Grade 1 turf routes following a winning effort.Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Smoking Sun (First North American start)
* French horse was a good second when shipped for the first time to the May 18 Singapore Cup, a race that more closely resembles an American-style turf contest than those in France.
“The Million has been a consideration since then,” said Alan Cooper, racing manager for the Niarchos family. “The mile and a quarter and the track configuration suit him. He’s a blooming 5-year-old. He’s a horse that likes to wait, and he’s got a good turn of foot.”
