Machiavelique's Beyers stand out

Midway through his 5-year-old campaign this season, Machiavelique had never recorded a Beyer Speed Figure higher than a modest 68, a number he matched winning his last start on turf in 2013 and his 2014 debut on June 16.

But somehow Machiavelique dramatically improved in his next two outings, missing by a neck in a $75,000 stakes and finishing fourth in his first start on a synthetic surface while earning back-to-back Beyers of 83 and 81.

A repeat of either of his last two races would make Machiavelique a standout in Tuesday’s $31,000 feature at Mountaineer Racetrack, a no-conditions allowance scheduled for a mile and 70 yards on turf.

The horses who beat Machiavelique in his two most recent starts are both legitimate. Bim Bam followed up his narrow victory over Machiavelique in Mountaineer’s Independence Day by winning the Aug. 24 DeBartolo Memorial at Remington Park with a 90 Beyer. Via Lad, who finished 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Machiavelique going a mile on the Tapeta at Presque Isle on Aug. 17, is 4 for 5 in 2014.

The question is whether Machiavelique has reached a new plateau or if he will now regress to his previous norm of running Beyers in the upper 60s following two fast races. His win on June 16 going seven furlongs on Mountaineer’s turf is just one of two for the year for trainer Jacqueline Erler, whose win percentage over the past five years is a mere 7 percent (11 for 165).

Alternatives to Machiavelique include stretch-out sprinter Fleet Eagle, who exits a sprint win at Presque Isle worth an 84 Beyer; Present Course, who won an off-the-turf route at Mountaineer by more than nine lengths two starts ago; and Sir Lowry’s Pass, who has put together a three-race winning streak that includes a last-out 93 Beyer but has never run on turf in his 24-race career.

Race 2

KEY CONTENDERS

Machiavelique (Last 3 Beyers: 81-83-68)

Missed by a neck of pulling off a 64-1 upset over yielding ground in the one-mile Independence Day on July 2. He then split the field in half when beaten 3 1/4 lengths at 39-1 in a no-conditions allowance at Presque Isle. Gelding has figured in the exacta in 5 of 6 turf starts locally.

Fleet Eagle (Last 3 Beyers: 84-80-58)

Good form on synthetic includes win by a nose in a third-level optional $62,500 claimer going six furlongs on July 23 and a daylight win going a mile and 70 yards in September 2013. Best turf race was a fourth-place finish, worth a 77 Beyer, going down the hill at Santa Anita in March 2012.

Present Course (Last 3 Beyers: 74-77-63)

Claimed out of a win for $15,000 in May, he was ambitiously spotted by owner-trainer Larry Reed in $100,000 West Virginia Speaker’s Cup on Aug. 2 and did not disgrace himself finishing a distant third in a race moved to the main track. Winless in four tries on turf, but did run well enough to finish a close second with 76 Beyer in maiden special weight event at Gulfstream Park in February 2013.

Black Circle (Last 3 Beyers: 71-63-69)

Returns to turf, where he has 2 wins and 4 seconds in 9 starts at Mountaineer following three losses running for claiming tags between $16,000 and $25,000 at Presque Isle. Ran a good race on grass in 2013 that could make him competitive in this spot, finishing second by a half-length locally last September.

Sir Lowry’s Pass (Last 3 Beyers: 93-78-80)

Daylight winner of his last three starts, all going two turns on dirt. Very low Tomlinson rating of 165 for turf and 1-for-16 record on synthetics makes it unlikely he will be a factor if the race remains on grass, but moves up big time if this event gets shifted to the main track.