Luke Middlebrook's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Happy Valley Selections
(Wednesday, November 27, 2024)

Race 1: #1 Me Time, #11 Sunny Baby, #8 Turtle Again, #2 Go Go Go
Race 2: #2 Speedy Fortune, #1 Modest Gentleman, #7 Circuit Ten, #4 Happy Horse
Race 3: #1 Handsome Bomb, #10 Dragon Delight, #8 To Infinity, #4 Happy Again
Race 4: #6 Affordable, #1 Charity Gain, #9 Management Folks, #4 Perfect Pairing
Race 5: #5 Fatal Blow, #2 The Perfect Match, #4 Glory Cloud, #11 Gimme Five
Race 6: #8 Roaring Bebe, #3 Golden Rise, #1 Gallant Valour, #5 New Power
Race 7: #4 Lightning Bolt, #3 Colonel, #2 Lyrical Motion, #9 Telecom Power
Race 8: #6 Allgreektome, #4 Horsepower, #10 Happy United, #7 Eternal Fortune
Race 9: #5 Illuminous, #3 Samarkand, #9 Sharpen Bright, #4 Chain Of Gold

Race 1 - BRIDGE OF WEIR HANDICAP

#1 Me Time is tough to oppose in this contest. Making his Class 5 debut, he started favourite two runs ago in Class 4 after a solid second-place finish to Joy Of Spring, which is strong form here. With Zac Purton in the saddle and a favourable low draw, he’s the one to beat. #11 Sunny Baby has lost form recently but returns to his preferred track and distance. With barrier 1 in his favour, he’s capable of bouncing back. #8 Turtle Again hasn’t won in a year, though his last-start third suggests he’s ready to capitalise when conditions suit. #2 Go Go Go may take up the running under the 10lb apprentice claim in a race lacking natural pace, and he could potentially steal the race with a soft lead.

Race 2 - CRAMOND ISLAND HANDICAP

#2 Speedy Fortune has been racing well since joining David Eustace and receives blinkers third-up, following an encouraging trial in the headgear. From his low draw, he looks well-placed to secure a win for the freshman trainer. #1 Modest Gentleman drops back into Class 5 for his third run this preparation and reunites with Jerry Chau, who guided him to his last victory. #7 Circuit Ten has tumbled down the ratings. He’s been edging closer to a win, and if he can utilise barrier 1 early, his chances of breaking through in Hong Kong are much improved. #4 Happy Horse also benefits from a drop back into Class 5, where his two career wins have occurred.

Race 3 - RAEBURN PLACE HANDICAP

#1 Handsome Bomb has been on the pace in two fast-run races this preparation and was entitled to tire late. Trying Happy Valley for the first time, his solid Sha Tin form makes him a leading chance in this moderate Class 4 event. #10 Dragon Delight remains winless in this grade after 11 attempts, though he has managed four third-place finishes, including his latest run. From a favourable low draw, he should get his chance. #8 To Infinity, drawn in barrier 1, might settle closer in the run, which will be helpful in a contest lacking depth. #4 Happy Again made a respectable debut and is expected to show natural improvement with further experience.

Race 4 - BEN NEVIS HANDICAP

#6 Affordable catches the eye. While winless from 11 starts in Hong Kong, he finished strongly into fourth over 2000m last time and now benefits from James McDonald in the saddle. The step up in trip suits, given his Australian form includes wins up to 2100m and placings over 2550m. #1 Charity Gain is a progressive four-year-old building a solid record. After a comfortable win two starts ago, he backed it up with a strong third. #9 Management Folks is primed to bounce back with Zac Purton aboard for the first time since July last year. His first-up effort at Sha Tin was solid, though he’s proven much better at Happy Valley, particularly over this trip. #4 Perfect Pairing never got a clear run last start but had more to offer. He’s capable of producing a better showing at an each-way price.

Race 5 - THE ST ANDREW'S CHALLENGE QUAICH (HANDICAP)

#5 Fatal Blow ticks plenty of boxes after a promising debut third and subsequent strong trial where he wasn’t pressured. Expect significant improvement second-up for the Mark Newnham stable. #2 The Perfect Match gets a favourable draw in barrier 2 with James McDonald aboard, and the removal of blinkers reads well. #4 Glory Cloud is poised for a breakthrough win, having narrowly missed last time out. However, barrier 9 presents a potential map challenge this time. #11 Gimme Five was sent back to the trials following a lacklustre last outing but had shown good form prior, finishing second to Swift Ascend, who has since franked the form with another win at Sha Tin on Sunday.

Race 6 - EDINBURGH HANDICAP

#8 Roaring Bebe could only manage sixth as the favourite last start, but the saddle slipping during the race left his rider at a disadvantage. Based on prior strong form and with barrier 1 in his favour, he deserves another chance. #3 Golden Rise endured a tough trip last time, caught wide without cover from the 600m, yet finished just two lengths off the winner. #1 Gallant Valour scored impressively two starts ago but had no favours last time after a slow start, closing strongly for fourth. A cleaner getaway should see him bounce back. #5 New Power adds blinkers for the first time and maps to settle in a handy on-pace position, where he will be given every opportunity.

Race 7 - EDINBURGH HANDICAP

#4 Lightning Bolt looks primed to strike again. Fourth-up, he has dropped enough in the ratings to make his mark at this level. James McDonald takes over after a solid fourth on the all-weather, and a trial win between runs adds to the appeal. #3 Colonel continues to defy his age with excellent form for the Mark Newnham stable. If left to dictate from the front, he will prove difficult to peg back. #2 Lyrical Motion faces a tough task from barrier 12, but his form holds up for this race, especially with Hugh Bowman returning to the saddle. #9 Telecom Power has been charging home late in his recent runs, but he will need to position closer to the pace to be a serious contender.

Race 8 - LOCH LOMOND HANDICAP

#6 Allgreektome maps to get a dream run from barrier 1. He has been working towards another win and finds plenty in his favour this week. #4 Horsepower impressed on debut, scoring smartly over this course and distance for Frankie Lor with Zac Purton aboard. While drawn wide in gate 11, the stats suggest it’s less of a disadvantage over 1000m with the rail in the C+3 position. #10 Happy United endured a tough trip resuming from gate 11 last time and can improve significantly on that 11th-place finish with a better run anticipated. #7 Eternal Fortune, now at his fourth local start, looks poised to break through after consecutive placings. James McDonald has a tricky task from barrier 12, however.

Race 9 - INVERNESS HANDICAP

#5 Illuminous, with James McDonald in the saddle and barrier 1 for the second time in succession, might settle closer in the run this time, which could help him turn his fortune around after several eye-catching efforts. #3 Samarkand had valid excuses last time after blundering in the straight and weakening. With little pace on paper, he looks well-suited to take control from barrier 3 and dictate terms upfront. #9 Sharpen Bright is building a strong record and was impressive winning on his first try in Class 3 over this course and distance. He looks capable of repeating the performance. #4 Chain Of Gold has been knocking on the door for a second local win, placing in all three starts this season. However, Zac Purton will need to work some magic from gate 12.