Luke Middlebrook's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Sunday, October 13, 2024

Sha Tin Selections
(Sunday, October 13, 2024)

Race 1: #2 Santorini, #5 Circuit Jolly, #1 Patch Of Cosmo, #9 Northern Fire Ball
Race 2: #8 Super Infinity, #5 Savvy Brilliant, #6 Super Fortune, #2 Captain Win
Race 3: #2 Awesome Fluke, #4 Supreme Agility, #1 Ensued, #3 Packing Hurricane
Race 4: #2 Super Wise Dragon, #13 Cheer For South, #6 Charmander, #3 Yoda’s Choice
Race 5: #3 Thriving Brothers, #5 Endeared, #1 Awesome Treasure, #9 Loving Vibes
Race 6: #14 Chater Gold, #13 Soaring Bronco, #4 Devas Twelve, #5 Family Jewel
Race 7: #4 Galaxy Patch, #8 Chancheng Glory, #5 Red Lion, #6 Straight Arron
Race 8: #7 Jubilant Winner, #2 Sunny Da Best, #11 Team Happy, #1 Stellar Swift
Race 9: #5 Lucy In The Sky, #2 Young Achiever, #3 Beauty Crescent, #6 Silo
Race 10: #6 Wunderbar, #13 Wonderstar, #7 Call Me Glorious, #8 Gorgeous Win

Race 1 - SWIMMING 1200M HANDICAP
#2 Santorini should receive every chance to bounce back and win, especially from barrier 1 with Hugh Bowman taking over the reins. He likely needed his first-up run, and the fast pace close to the lead didn’t suit him. He’s worth another opportunity. #5 Circuit Jolly, a debutant from the David Hayes yard, could make an immediate impact. His trial performances have shown promise, and Zac Purton in the saddle signals readiness for a strong first-up showing. #1 Patch Of Cosmo was ultra-impressive in winning a race of this nature, a Restricted Class 4 for three-year-olds, storming home from a wide draw to win on the line. He looks to have upside. #9 Northern Fire Ball ran boldly on debut, just missing an all-the-way win, and should be competitive again.

Race 2 - ATHLETICS AND JUDO 1200M HANDICAP
#8 Super Infinity steps up to Class 3 after an impressive first-up victory. He still has room for improvement, and his light weight will be an asset as he faces stiffer competition. #5 Savvy Brilliant ran a respectable race on debut over 1000m, finishing well despite early interference and being held up in the final stages. He should prove more competitive second-up. #6 Super Fortune holds a key advantage with his natural early speed, and as the likely leader on paper, he will be tough to reel in. #2 Captain Win brings solid form, having placed behind some talented runners recently, and should find this a slightly easier task.

Race 3 - THE HONG KONG, CHINA'S PARIS 2024 OLYMPIC TEAM CELEBRATION CUP (HANDICAP)
#2 Awesome Fluke returned in strong form when finishing a solid third over a mile, marking his first run for Ricky Yiu. He has proven form over longer trips, making the step up in distance ideal as he seeks a return to winning ways. #4 Supreme Agility is yet to place in five Hong Kong runs, which is surprising given his honest efforts and narrow defeats. Though untested over 2000m, he deserves consideration. #1 Ensued was last seen in the Hong Kong Derby where he raced wide and failed to fire, and resumes from a lengthy break but remains a high-class prospect. #3 Packing Hurricane, second-up over 2000m, will benefit from a more measured ride compared to his first-up effort, where he faded late after doing too much early.

Race 4 - BADMINTON AND CYCLING 1400M HANDICAP
#2 Super Wise Dragon is difficult to catch due to his breathing issues, but he attracts attention first-up for Cody Mo, dropping into Class 5 for the first time. His new stable and class drop could be key factors in sparking improvement. #13 Cheer For South has been underwhelming but hasn't had the best of luck recently. With barrier 1, he'll be afforded every chance to run a more competitive race. #6 Charmander has shown progress since moving to David Hall’s yard, and despite being beaten as the odds-on favourite last start, his second-place finish was solid. He’s a strong contender here back in trip. #3 Yoda’s Choice returns after a quick seven-day turnaround following a promising runner-up effort. While barrier 14 isn't ideal, he's capable of overcoming the wide draw and remains a strong winning prospect in this grade.

Race 5 - FENCING 1200M HANDICAP
#3 Thriving Brothers steps down to Class 4 for the first time in Hong Kong after a commendable first-up effort at the bottom of Class 3, finishing less than a length behind in sixth. While 1400m might be more ideal for him, the drop in class enhances his chances, and the booking of Zac Purton adds further confidence. #5 Endeared is another to consider when dropping in grade. His career has been hindered by poor draws, but he consistently puts in sound performances. #1 Awesome Treasure has drawn gate 10 with 10lb apprentice Britney Wong aboard. They are likely to roll forward and give sight, as usual. #9 Loving Vibes lines up for his second career start, and his debut last season was eye-catching from his wide draw. This time, with a better gate, he should find a handier position in the run and be within striking range to challenge.

Race 6 - SAILING 1600M HANDICAP
#14 Chater Gold showed plenty of merit last start, finishing fourth despite an early check and being held up for a clear run in the straight. From a wide draw, he'll need to be ridden with early intent but is trending towards a win. #13 Soaring Bronco benefits from an inside gate and drops back to a more suitable distance. His recent runs have been encouraging, and he should get the right amount of favours here. #4 Devas Twelve impressed with a first-up win and has plenty of upside. Proven at the mile, he is favoured to win again with some luck from the widest gate. #5 Family Jewel aims for back-to-back course and distance wins, still looking untapped after just four starts.

Race 7 - THE SHA TIN TROPHY (HANDICAP)
#4 Galaxy Patch had an outstanding season last term, culminating in back-to-back G3 Handicap wins. He kicks off this campaign with his sights set on December’s Hong Kong Mile and looks well-positioned to start with a victory. #8 Chancheng Glory benefits from carrying a light weight under handicap conditions, and his tactical speed should see him settle in a handy on-pace position in a race that lacks early speed on paper. #5 Red Lion is another well-placed runner under handicap conditions. While others may still be building fitness for bigger targets later in the season, this is the type of race in which he can figure. #6 Straight Arron makes his first appearance under trainer Ricky Yiu. While he will be looking for more ground, he may be one to spring an upset fresh.

Race 8 - ROWING AND TABLE TENNIS 1400M HANDICAP
#7 Jubilant Winner appears ready to win. He will be well-fancied with Zac Purton taking over after a first-up third and a handy trial in between runs. The rise to 1400m should suit. #2 Sunny Da Best showed promise last season in five starts, though he ended on a low note and was spelled afterward. His trials suggest he's ready to get back on track. #11 Team Happy won easily two starts ago but couldn’t repeat that second-up due to a hot pace. A softer early run should see him bounce back. #1 Stellar Swift produced a career-best effort first-up, charging home for a fast-finishing second. Hugh Bowman takes the reins this time.

Race 9 - TAEKWONDO 1400M HANDICAP
#5 Lucy In The Sky is tough to oppose from barrier 3. He was a game runner-up to up-and-comer Wunderbar first-up and has been highly consistent, recording two wins and four seconds from seven starts. #2 Young Achiever is worth following as he progresses deeper into his campaign with the 4YO Classic Series in view. #3 Beauty Crescent has yet to win in 19 Hong Kong starts but has placed behind some top-tier runners recently. With luck from his wide draw, he can figure. #6 Silo is showing steady improvement with more local experience, and his last-start effort pressing the lead was commendable.

Race 10 - ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS AND TRIATHLON 1200M HANDICAP
#6 Wunderbar made a striking return from injury, leading throughout to secure a first-up win in Class 3 carrying top weight. He is a rising talent and looks capable of winning again, especially as he will step away from barrier 1. #13 Wonderstar debuts for leading trainer Pierre Ng. The former Macau galloper has caught the eye in his trials and seems to have what it takes to measure up here. #7 Call Me Glorious needed his first-up run over an unsuitably short 1000m but still managed a close fourth. He should be much more effective stepping up to 1200m second-up. #8 Gorgeous Win resumed impressively, securing an effortless victory in Class 3 under top weight, and he has trialled well since. He appears to be a horse yet to reach his full potential