Lucky Vega tepid favorite in Irish 2000 Guineas

A dozen 3-year-olds, no standouts, are entered in Saturday’s Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh.

Lucky Vega as of Thursday was a general 5-2 favorite in antepost wagering, but it’s hard to see him having any decided edge. His support hinges on Lucky Vega’s level of accomplishment, which is sufficiently high, but also on course conditions, with the Guineas, run around a gentle right-handed turn, expected to be contested over legitimately soft going.

Lucky Vega, a Lope de Vega colt trained by Jessica Harrington, has won twice in six starts, both victories coming at age 2 in six-furlong races. Last August at The Curragh, Lucky Vega trounced the talented The Lir Jet by three lengths in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, his best performance of 2020, though he returned to action May 1 with a solid third-place finish at Newmarket in the English 2000 Guineas. That race was run on quick going, and if the assumption is Lucky Vega prefers give in the course, and that he’ll improve second time out, one can understand the case being made for him.

He’ll have to overcome three Aidan O’Brien-trained rivals and two more from the yard of Jim Bolger. O’Brien’s hopefuls are Wembley, Battleground, and Van Gogh, the first two coming off poor performances in the English 2000 Guineas, where Wembley was 11th, Battleground 13th. Both colts should go considerably better than that, while Van Gogh holds some interest because of his wet-turf performances at age 2, when he won the Group 1 Criterium International over a heavy course and was second in the Autumn Stakes, contested on a soft course, to the capable One Ruler. Van Gogh, eighth in the English 2000 Guineas, did run poorly last August racing over soft going at The Curragh in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes.

That race was won by Mac Swiney, one of two for Bolger along with Poetic Flare.

Poetic Flare was the hero of the English 2000 Guineas on May 1 but failed to reproduce that form just last weekend in the French 2000 Guineas, where he was just sixth, and if Poetic Flare struggled over a very soft course at Longchamp, the expected conditions Saturday won’t help him. Mac Swiney might wind up better suited to longer races but had an excuse for his modest fourth-place finish May 9 in the Derby Trial Stakes and was a good winner last fall of the Vertem Futurity going one mile on testing ground.

In the undercard stakes, Group 1 winner Glen Shiel is favored in the six-furlong, Group 2 Greenlands, while Champers Elysees is odds-on for the Group 2 Lanwades Stakes over one mile.