Lovell has favorites in both stakes

A pair of $150,000 turf-sprint stakes Monday at Colonial Downs run directly through the barn of trainer Michelle Lovell.

Lovell has 8-5 morning-line favorite Just Might in the Van Clief Stakes and 3-1 morning-line favorite Change of Control in the Andy Guest Stakes. The two 5 1/2-furlong grass sprints are carded, respectively, as races 6 and 8 on a strong program launching Week 2 of the Colonial meet. The race separating them, a high-level filly-and-mare turf-route allowance, marks the North American debut of Argentine turf standout Didia.

Just Might is the shorter price of the two Lovell favorites but might be the shakier betting proposition. The 6-year-old gelding, whom Lovell co-bred and co-owns with Griffon Farms, won more stake races, seven, than any other North American racehorse during 2021, but comes into the Van Clief with only one win in his last five starts. That victory, in Just Might’s most recent race, came on dirt, where he has raced with as much effectiveness as on grass, versatility Just Might demonstrated with stakes wins on both surfaces last season at Colonial.

To be fair, Just Might does have excuses for seventh- and sixth-place finishes on the Churchill Downs and Keeneland grass courses this spring. At Keeneland in the Shakertown Stakes, Just Might lacked his typical early zip while running into Golden Pal, the best turf sprinter in America and an easy winner of the Shakertown. At Churchill on May 6, Just Might got into a speed duel while racing over a course strongly favoring outside stalkers and closers.

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Monday, he has to lug 126 pounds, giving four pounds to most of his rivals, but does appear to be the controlling speed under Rafael Bejarano, who rode Just Might to his recent win.

Another thing in Just Might’s favor: The lack of serious challengers. Pyron beat Just Might at Fair Grounds five months ago and has a chance to regain his better form racing while racing on Lasix for the first time in three starts. Smokin’ Jay’s chances last month in the Grade 1 Jaipur were ruined with a poor start, and his eighth-place finish that day obscures otherwise positive form trends from the 4-year-old.

Change of Control, facing males, also ran in the Jaipur, finishing a respectable fourth, beaten three lengths by victorious Casa Creed, after breaking from post 1 and racing inside. A similar showing Monday ought to land her a win in the Andy Guest – provided the 6-year-old mare is willing.

May 5, in the Unbridled Sidney at Churchill, Change of Control held a stretch-call lead and appeared to be on the way to a win when Toby’s Heart emerged and ran her down. And in January, in the Fred Aime Memorial at Fair Grounds, Change of Control put away pacesetter Elle Z at the furlong grounds, only to surrender the lead to Elle Z in the dying strides. It’s not impossible Change of Control has gotten too clever for her own good, but she’s still the most likely winner of the Andy Guest.

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Jeanie B, who beat Change of Control at Woodbine last year, makes her first start for trainer Cam Gambolati and looks capable of beating the favorite. Goin’ Good and longer-priced Minauan also merit a second look.

Didia, meanwhile, would be worth a bet if the betting public lets her go at anything close to her 4-1 morning-line odds. Now trained by Ignacio Correas, Didia won her last four turf starts in Argentina, the two most recent in Group 1 company, by 21 combined lengths, and was especially impressive in the Group 1 Enrique Acebal and the Group 1 Copa de Plata.

Didia likes to lead and has a lot of pace, but has shown the ability to quicken in the homestretch. She did so shrugging off a serious challenge from the favorite in the Acebal before utterly dominating a large field in the Copa de Plata, which she won by four lengths. Correas, an Argentine import himself, first mentioned Didia’s arrival in his barn several months ago and wondered whether the filly, a 4-year-old by Orpen, might be the equal of his previous top South American import, Dona Bruja, who finished second in the 2017 renewal of the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes at Arlington.