Louisville Breeders' Cup Stakes preview

Friday, May 4, 2007
Churchill Downs - Race 8
1 1/16 Miles
Louisville Breeders' Cup Stakes (Grade 2)
3-year-olds and upward, fillies and mares
Purse $300,000.

INDIAN VALE wasn't visually impressive winning the Next Move Handicap as she coasted on an easy lead only to switch back to her wrong lead late, but that was her first start in over 10 months, and she should be sharper on Friday. She likes to be close to the pace, but her Grade 2 win over this surface last year proves that she doesn't need the lead, and she may sit just off speedtypes like FIERY PURSUIT, and SUGAR SHAKE. Indian Vale has won six of eight races, and has put up some big Beyer Speed Figures in the past. She should be prominent when they turn for home for the always-dangerous trainer-jockey combination of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez.
DELICATE DYNAMITE is riding a four-race win streak for high-percentage trainer Tom Amoss, and her late-running style should suit her perfectly in this spot. She has never lost on a conventional dirt track, and should be charging in the lane, but this will be a big class test. FIERY PURSUIT earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in handy fashion over weaker two starts back, then got tired in the stretch of the Bayakoa Stakes. She'll face other speeds in here so don't be surprised if Cal Borel decides to rate her off the early lead. She's never raced in a graded stakes before, and is another that will be quizzed for quality. BAGHDARIA rode a speed-favoring track to victory in the Sweetheart at Delta Downs two starts back, then was overmatched in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. She is another that would benefit from the expected hot pace up front, gets a solid rider switch to Rafael Bejarano, and may be rounding back to her best form in the third start of the cycle.
ASI SIEMPRE hasn't done much wrong since switching over from grass, but her Beyer Speed Figures haven't been anything to write home about, and she took advantage of a closer-friendly track to win the Grade 3 Doubledogdare at Keeneland. She gets the proper race flow, but may be overbet. SUGAR SHAKE showed her quality by winning the Grade 1 Santa Maria Handicap last time out, but she was allowed to dictate an easy pace that day. She may be the quickest from the gate in this field, but will likely go up against serious pace pressure.

Selections:
1. Indian Vale
2. Delicate Dynamite
3. Fiery Pursuit