Louisiana Champions Day Classic favorites are vulnerable

When Underpressure won the Louisiana Champions Day Classic in 2018, he’d raced a month earlier at Delta Downs. When he finished third in the 2019 renewal, he’d raced three weeks earlier at Delta. But when Underpressure starts Saturday at Fair Grounds in the $150,000 Champions Day Classic, it will mark his first race since March 21, and he is not the only logical contender coming into the 1 1/8-mile race after a long layoff.

The other is Shang, listed as the 8-5 morning line favorite ahead of 5-2 Underpressure and unraced since July 4. Shang is 4 and Underpressure is 6, and while Shang appears to be the slightly faster horse, he’s unproven at 1 1/8 miles, a distance at which Underpressure, a son of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, is 4-1-0-2. Yet the long break between starts could undo both horses’ chance in the last of seven statebred Thoroughbred stakes on a card that start at noon Central with three Quarter Horse races.

Shang and Underpressure met last January at Fair Grounds in an allowance race rained off turf, Shang coming back from a six-month break, Underpressure making his first start since his third in the Champions Day Classic. Shang buried his older rival, winning by more than five lengths after leading from the start going a mile and 70 yards. Shang’s only try over Saturday’s extended trip came in the $300,000 Oaklawn Park Invitational during spring 2019, a race in which Shang never got involved, and it seems like a big ask of a colt who likely prefers one mile to stretch his speed this far off a four-workout pattern and a five-month break.

Steve Asmussen trains Shang and has a second runner in Jus Lively, who can post a mild upset. Shang trounced Jus Lively when they met in the 2019 Crescent City Derby at Fair Grounds, but Jus Lively has won his other three route races at Fair Grounds and has a major recency edge on his stablemate and Underpressure. Jus Lively made his comeback from a long layoff on Nov. 24 in a Delta Downs stakes race and finished a closing second, and he stands a good chance of successfully staying his first try at nine furlongs.

“I think that’s right in his wheelhouse,” Asmussen said.

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Seven-year-old Mageez makes his sixth Champions Day appearance and fifth straight start in the Classic, but could finish only fifth last year and hasn’t raced at all since September.

Turf, Ladies Turf

Ninety One Assault was a somewhat win-shy racehorse before last season at Fair Grounds, where he reeled off three straight victories beginning with a score in the $100,000 Champions Day Turf. Ninety One Assault was a 9-2 shot a year ago, but will be solidly favored Saturday trying for his second straight win in this 1 1/16-mile contest.

Ninety One Assault, trained and co-owned by Tom Morley, didn’t race between February and August, returned from his layoff with an even sixth in the Oceanport at Monmouth Park, then improved to finish second in the $100,000 Henry Clark at Laurel Park. Ninety One Assault goes second after a layoff again Saturday, Morely having freshened him following the Clark before bringing the 7-year-old gelding back for a Champions Day prep in the Nov. 14 Artie Shiller Stakes at Belmont, where Ninety One Assault was a useful sixth.

Ninety One Assault looks a formidable favorite in great part because of soft competition. Carlea’s Dream, first or second in his last five starts, ships from Oklahoma to race in a Louisiana-bred race for the first time in his career, and can vie with Changi and Budro Talking for the place spot.

The $100,000 Ladies Turf, also over 1 1/16 miles, drew just seven entrants, a group that’s difficult to separate. Net a Bear won this race in 2019 but is a one-run closer who could be racing behind a slow pace.

Offspring, the pick to win, can make the lead, slow the tempo, and get home at a potentially fair price. Oak Tree Stable and trainer Joe Sharp claimed her for $62,500 at the Keeneland meet in October and kept her fresh for a return to a turf course over which she’s 2 for 2.

Sprint, Ladies Sprint

There’ve been plenty of crack Louisiana-bred sprinters over the last several decades, but truly fast six-furlong horses appear to be in short supply this season.

The $100,000 Sprint drew nine horses, none of whom have earned a Beyer Speed Figure higher than 86 during 2020, while the $100,000 Ladies Sprint went with a field of eight fillies and mares.

Our Lost Love is a solid selection in the female-restricted race as a 3-year-old filly who still has some upside and could wind up on an uncontested lead Saturday. Second in the 2019 Champions Day Lassie, Our Lost Love did not appreciate a deep, tiring racing surface in her most recent dirt race, Aug. 20 at Louisiana Downs, and the glib Fair Grounds surface could suit her.

In the open Sprint, Laughingsaintsong figures to be favored, as he has been in his five starts since winning the 2019 Champions Day Sprint at nearly 6-1. Laughingsaintsong has won only one of those five races and is unappealing at a price as low as his 5-2 morning-line odds. Lightly raced 4-year-old Bertie’s Galaxy has four wins from seven Fair Grounds starts and appears to be working forwardly for trainer Ron Faucheux preparing for his first race since Sept. 19.

◗ Sir Wellington, who comes out of a Keeneland stakes race and faces Louisiana-breds for the first time, is the pick to beat Southern California shipper No Pedigree in the $100,000 Juvenile. The $100,00 Lassie looks more contentious with Taylor Avenue getting a mild call over longshot Strummer.