Los Alamitos: Daily Game Plan for Saturday, July 5

Daily GamePlan gives you some of the best betting opportunities of the day from DRF experts, including Closer Looks , Spot Plays, Vulnerable Favorites, and Live Longshots.

Closer Looks by Mark Ratzky

Race 1

Desert Madam

Showed some improvement in the 2nd sprint, then stretched out to a mile and tried the lawn last time and pretty much went around the track in the same place; trainer nabbed 1st Grade I win last weekend in Gold Cup.

Ina Mina

Made debut at bottom level for Baffert and was claimed out of a fading effort, then stepped up and showed a bit more fight after a stumbling takeoff; looks to have her work cut out.

Lindy Hoppin

Nearly lit up the toteboard at 2nd asking when stretchint out over the Arcadia green, then shortened up to try the hill over there and got going too late; needs to be able to duplicate the form over the main track.

Oeighter

Off slow from the rail when testing the SA dip in that May 1 unveiling, didn't get into the swing of things until it was too late in the grass miler; Talamo stays, blinkers go on and the barn has been doing solid work.

Super Defence

Came back ready to rock and roll for Baltas, who has been pushing the right buttons lately; carved out all the fractions in the first start in nearly 10 months, fought back with Delgadillo and just missed while sporting a tag; must be considered.

Cravin' the Heat

She's missed by far the most chances as she takes her 12th stab, but she does have some numbers that stack up fairly well with this group; Abrams and Trujillo could be on the verge of forming a smart partnership.

Capraia

The wildcard in the field as she makes her debut for Drysdale, who put sire War Chant through his paces; check the paddock, post parade and toteboard for more clues on this debutante.

My Sweet Afleet

Not much doing in the first try, then found a run down the hill at SA more to her liking as she outran her odds with that exacta completiion, although no threat to the winner; bred to appreciate the extra real estate.

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Race 2

Hollanita

She's 9-for-19 in her career, which is more than twice the wins of anybody else here; Taylor claimed her out of a mile affair and now brings here back at a distance where she is unbeaten in 4 attempts.

Warren's Assassin

Got the overdue 2nd snapshot to close out Santa Anita meeting, lighting up the tote at 55-1 under Quinnonez; Guterrez brings her back at a very realistic level and she'll certainly get more respect at the windows today.

It's Aine

Sat a tracking trip under these exact conditions three weeks ago in Arcadia and made some mild headway in the late stages; has to find a bit more punch if she wants to reach.

Ebo's Love

Been away a long, long time and wasn't exactly impressing when last seen under silks; does sport a local bullet and Guce is the main when it comes to the smaller night track here.

Metaxa

A series of sharp efforts between Dec. and March, then came up empty in the first start off the claim; drops a couple of notches and reunited with Orozco, who was aboard for the last two victories.

Smil'n From Above

Just the 2 wins to go with 19 place and show finishes; If you believe in the every-other-race pattern, she would be due for a good one.

Milady Maid

Has been a bystander in the two efforts following some 17-plus months on the bench; slips some more down the class ladder while racing over the track where she trains.

Courageousandbold

Had some traffic troubles in that last one across town and is returned at the same level by the new connections; looking elsewhere for the first few placings.

Queen of the Hill

She's the key to the race as she takes a big dip for O'Neill, who took her for this price 5 starts back; if she can run back to anything resembling those April outings she beats these for fun, but she's disappointed in 2 of the last 3; will have plenty of backers.

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Race 3

I Don't Care Who

Sat a tracking trip behind today's foe Got Even while a bit headstrong, then went evenly through the lane for a non-threatening show finish; sports a 3-for-4 record at this distance and has Mullins/Garcia team in his corner.

Alpha Bullet

Has fired bullets in all 4 of his appearances, coming away with a pair of wins and two nose defeats; first teaming with Elvis was a good one as he held safe down the hill for a starter score; must deal with speed to the outside, but very willing.

Got Even

Maladanado rated this one beautifully at Anita last month and he got the job done despite drifting in the late stages; earned a monster number and won't be anywhere 9-1 this time, but not expecting things to be as easy on the front end; major player.

Arkenstone

The only 3-year-old in the cast as he faces his elders for the first time and he's also the lone member with just a maiden win showing; last time he chased home two runners who will be wheeling back later today in the Derby; needs best.

Tres Borrachos

Props to this guy for his $1 million bankroll and the fact that he is still fighting the good fight at age 9 for Marty Jones; got a nice tightener in that 7-furlong affair in late May, you have to respect the back class and he has an edge in that this is where he trains.

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Race 4

Sooner Born

Made a big move forward in the 2nd start for Hollendorfer, as he dropped into a claimer and left little doubt in the initial teaming with apprentice Van Dye; segues into the next logical spot and won't need to step it up all that much to be right there in the first try vs. winners.

Adrenaline Shot

Had been away for over 13 months when he suited up for that starter fray down the hill at Anita and was finished early at 66-1; appears to be the least likely in this cast.

Sun Spots

Turned his form around when he showed a passing gear to motor by for the diploma on the dip at 17-1, then took an early bump and checked and was no factor last time; back in a hurry, which is no surprise for an Abrams charge.

No Ez Money

Graduated in handy fashion at 2nd asking while doing his work at the lowest level, outran his odds while on the engine in the next and then forced a fast half last time and paid the price; looking at serious pressure up front once again.

Storm Bid

Third time the charm in those 870-mixed races here on the smaller night track as he stalked and pounced under Boag; this is a whole different ballgame and he will have to step it up to make needed impact.

Johns Journey

Likes to mix it up front and after being in some heated duels in his last couple, he cuts back to the distance of his March 1 maidenbreaker; should be right in the thick of things from the break, but needs to dig deep.

Grand Humor

Another who likes to be up close and personal, but he has the advantage of an outside slot and that gives Baze some options; a repeat of the figure he earned in the April graduation across town makes him very dangerous.

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Race 5

Mysterious Promise

Claimed by the high-percentage Audrey from his diploma earner at 2nd asking in Hot Springs, then set a pretty quick pace going once around on the Anita lawn and retreated in May; this is where he trains and new pilot Perez figures to be motoring early from this inside slot.

Tiznow Or Then

Made ice Cream Truck work for it last time over the turf in his 3rd start back from the layoff; looks to be better on the green, but he's got a great trainer and a top pilot in Talamo, who was aboard for the graduation.

Take a Risk

Took a class dip in the 2nd start vs. winners and put in a good run for the place money, with the winner coming right back to score; steps back up, but would benefit by some serious mixing up on the front end.

Tancred

Took the measure of lowest level maidens off the bench, but 2 of the next 3 have left quite a bit to be desired; returns to the main track.

Sudden Rumor

Finally put it all together in the 9th trip to the post, stalking and pouncing under new best friend Agapito; stretches back out and headed in right direction for hot barn.

Cut to Run

Took the biggest class drop in racing for his 3rd appearance, ignited when it counted and was up in time while earning modest figure; Maldanado goes elsewhere, but no complaints with Trujillo.

Go Black Tie

Earned diploma going two turns over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and has turned in even efforts in the two subsequent outings while racing on the Arcadia lawn sporting higher claiming tags; blinkers go back on with the apprentice Van Dyke trying his hand.

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Race 6

Sir Kip

First of 8 new faces here; Kelly Kip is 9-for-56 with his beginners and the Vinewood Farms homebred sports some crisp moves over this layout for top local conditioner Aleman.

Prontezzo

Exchange Rate clicks with 17 percent of his firsters in a large sampling; It looks like this one hasn't missed a beat in the a.m. across town for a hot trainer in D'Amato and the presence of Talamo adds to the positives.

Opsec

Brought 220K as a yearling and Pioneerof the Nile is off to a promising start with 9 winners from 56 first-to-the-gate; had been working here for Baffert before moving over to Arcadia for the last two spins; obvious danger.

Good Deal

Glen Hill Farm homebred is by Smart Strike, who has won with 118 of his 824 new faces; should be nice and tight for Proctor and helps make it interesting.

Raspberry Ala Mode

Eddington is an 11 percent debut sire; Palma has given this one a string of 5-furlong moves across town followed by a :46 change bullet to complete preparations.

Charming Jewel

By a sire who is 0-for-21 with firsters with a pair of best of the morning local drills in tow; leaning toward the higher profile connections today.

Crux

Has distinction of being the only member of the cast to have faced the starter, earning a distant show finish from his 3 attempts; respect the barn, but guessing at least a couple of the first-timers are going to be quicker.

Aperfectdaytofly

Makes belated debut at age 6; by Perfect Mandate, who has won with 20 of 174 newbies; Warren can let them roll in the a.m., as evidenced by the those 5-furlong drills; Baze helps cause.

Radiant Dancer

The 1:11 3/5 move at SA on June 22 jumps off the page; Bonde has a high first-strike rate and Langfuhr connects with 10 percent of his firsters; check post parade and toteboard for more clues.

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Race 7

Vulnerable Favorite

APPEALING RESUME (#7, 5-2) held strong form from last summer until this winter but after a solid 3rd vs. tougher at SA March 7 (when claimed) she wasn’t seen for 2 months, came back with a very dull run May 2 and now has been gone another 2 months which gives cause for pause, particularly at a short price. -Michael Hammersly

Sydney's Darling

Off since October with solid local tab; got away last from the rail coming down the hill in the first start off the Sherman claim and had little left for the drive; 2 non-turf outings were a win on a wet-fast surface and a show finish on the Del Mar synthetic.

Rhodium

Came up empty chasing a punctual favorite on the SA dip last month, but go back and there's a solid near-miss on the main; the latter was the only teaming with Draydon, who is reunited with the Miller runner here; best effort makes her dangerous.

La Quillotana

Finished a non-threatening 3rd behind today's rival Tough Business going 7 furlongs across town last month; looks like another minor award is the ceiling here.

Tough Business

Cakewalked when he took the money in his 2nd attempt while dropping to the bottom level, then did an encore when nicely placed on a bit of a stretchout 3 weeks ago; new trainer Truman finds a cozy spot where he can't lose the filly.

Creditcardroulette

Has made 7 straight trips down the Anita hillside, coming away with a win and several nibbles and is now trying fast main track for first time; 3rd start off Treece claim and was making some late headway last time in the first teaming with Delgadillo.

Pursuitofparadise

First afternoon outing since October and returns to Sothern California after an extended stay in Louisiana; hard to get too enthused about the work she was doing when last seen at Evangaline and Delta.

Appealing Resume

The 14 lifetime wins jumps off the page in a race where only one other runner has as many as 3 pictures; been popular at the claim box and if you draw a line through the last one, she has a series of outings that make her very dangerous with this group.

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Race 8

Los Alamitos Derby by Michael Hammersly

Hate to do the obvious but sometimes you just can’t look past the best horse. That’s the case with SHARED BELIEF who looks just too tough in this, the former Swaps Stakes. Last year’s 2-year-old champion missed the Triple Crown due to a lingering foot injury but his comeback sprint win at GG 26 was terrific. Not only did he win easily but it came against some very tough ELDER sprinters and he brushed them off as if he was flicking away a fly.

No, it wasn’t up to the level of some of his work last year, but it wasn’t supposed to be. It was a first step back. Walk before you run. So, it was mission accomplished as he showed there were no ill effects from his prior ailment and that he was as good as ever. Now it’s time for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer to shove him back into the deeper end of the pool.

The son of Candy Ride was absolutely smashing last year on his way to the Eclipse Award. He romped by 7 in his sprint debut at GG Oct. 19, easily won the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue by 7 3/4 Nov. 10, laughed his way home to romp by 5 3/4 lengths in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. Then came the foot ailment and a lost winter/early spring. But his sprint romp shows he’s back and feeling spry. So that makes him not only unbeaten, but as you can see, untested (won his four starts by a collective 24 3/4 lengths.

While SHARED BELIEF surely has speed (his May 26 sprint win came wire to wire) he’s no need-the-lead type, and that could be critical here in a race where there are a few early sizzlers. In fact, his CashCall Futurity win was brilliant not only because he ran fast and won easily, but the manner he employed. He pressed the early pace but got passed going to the far turn and briefly looked in trouble. It was momentary, however, as he was settled and relaxed the entire time, and upon a cue from his rider went up and around his rivals and drew off without really taking a deep breath. Heady stuff. It’s something along those lines we expect to see here tactically as TOP FORTITUDE, EDDIE’S FIRST and CAN THE MAN figure to roll early. The first have been sprinting primarily while the latter just won the Grade 3 Affirmed virtually wire to wire.

SHARED BELIEF figures to fall in just behind those guys and go when jockey Mike Smith says it’s time.

Of course, the one drawback is that if he does the expected don’t expect to get rich. He figures to go off in the 3-5 range.

This is no walkover, though, mind you, and if you can couple him up with the right other horse you could turn an odd-on win payoff into say a 4-1 or so exacta payoff.

Not only is this ‘BELIEF’s first start on dirt (which shouldn’t be an issue with his pedigree) but there’s no paucity of talent getting in the gate against him. Of course, none are as accomplished and for the most part all are ‘on the come’. But a couple blossoming rivals could continue to trend upward and the combination of that and SHARED BELIEF possibly not showing up with his ‘A’ game could close the gap – or overcome it – that currently exists.

The main danger may come from another son of Candy Ride. CANDY BOY gave SHARED BELIEF a brief scare in the CashCall Futurity when he made a big swooping move to go from midpack to the lead going to the far turn. He couldn’t keep pace with SHARED BELIEF in the lane but that run showed acceleration, a burst and talent and he stayed on to be second ahead of some nice peers. He followed that with a game win in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at SA Feb. 8 and third to California Chrome in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby April 5. He then had a brutal trip in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby May 3, finishing 13th some dozen lengths behind California Chrome. Trainer John Sadler opted to come home instead of chasing ‘Chrome through the Triple Crown and he may reap the benefits of such a move – though it must be daunting that he goes from facing California Chrome to coming home to face SHARED BELIEF.

The pace should play to his favor. He’s no deep closer, mind you. In both the Lewis and Santa Anita Derby he wasn’t that far off a solid pace. And as noted, when he ran second in the CashCall he showed the ability to step on the gas at any point in the race. That can keep him within reach of SHARED BELIEF until the time comes to mount a challenge.

CAN THE MAN hinted at significant ability last year and after eight months off came back to win the Grade 3 Affirmed at SA last month. He’s worked strongly since and while he has ample speed note two of his three wins have come from just off the pace. So, if sprint-types EDDIES FIRST and TOP FORTITUDE prove quicker this son of Into Mischief has shown he can press and go on with it. Of course, that means he’ll have to outkick SHARED BELIEF and maybe CANDY BOY, no easy feat.

He’s been working splendidly since so he holds his edge, but with a career-top Beyer of 87, earned in the Affirmed, he’ll need a hefty move forward to challenge SHARED BELIEF (last three Beyers of 99, 106, 96) and CANDY BOY (top Beyers of 96, 95).

Eddie's First

The first of 2 for O'Neill; put it all together and got a huge figure coming down the hill to earn the graduation papers, then had some traffic troubles in the subsequent Golden Gate lawn party; appears the least accomplished of this group and the 9 furlongs is a major question mark as well.

Tonito M.

He was a monster in Puerto Rico, then made a very nice impression in his return to the United States when finishing willingly behind Top Fortitude in the Laz Barrera under Espinoza; the trip to Belmont for the Woody Stephens proved far less successful, however, so now they're back and he gets a lot more distance and is re-united with Victor.

Can the Man

Despite a bit of an awkward start in the Affirmed, this well-regarded Baffert trainee forced the moderate fractions and got the job done with main man Garcia; has to cover an extra sixteenth of a mile today while dealing with the Hollendorfer juggernaut, but should be up close and personal and still developing for top conditioner.

Friendswith K Mill

Has been developing nicely for O Neill, proving a punctual favorite in allowance company and then turning in a solid effort behind today's rival Can The Man in the Affirmed; should drop into some type of stalking position and will need to come up with a career effort to reach.

Shared Belief

Hollenforfer's unbeaten Eclipse Award winner had his Triple Crown hopes dashed by a setback, but looks ready to pick up where he left off in the second half of the year; had what amounted to a paid workout at Golden Gate to get some foundation and now stretches back out, with his only route effort resulting in a 106 Beyer in the Cash Call Futurity; formidable.

Top Fortitude

The barn has always been high on this Candy Ride homebred and he's been freshened since that nightmare trip in the Ky. Derby where he was virtually eliminated; displayed his potential with his victory in the Robert Lewis and was taken out of his game trying to prompt California Chrome in the SA Derby; 9 furlongs will be right up his alley as Talamo gets his first chance.

Candy Boy

Arizona-bred has made two starts with Kayla and two smashing victories; really stepped up his game to prevail in the 7-furlong Barrera at Santa Anita, and while no match for a freaking Bayern in the Woody Stephens back East, he did making a nice late impression to outfinish the rest; stretching out to two turns for the first time and it s not going to be an easy task, but Owens traineehas some gameness to him.

Race 9

Spot Play

GRACE VICTORIA (#9, 3-1) showed fine speed in her debut at SA June 21 before finishing a well-beaten 3rd (16 lengths). She can surely benefit from that outing and with that under her belt plus what appear to be foes not quite as tough as a couple she met last time may mean she’s the right way to end your multi-race wagers on today’s card. She’s been working all along at Barretts so she may like this tight-turned oval. -Michael Hammersly

Lucky S. J.

First of 5 beginners and this one hails from a barn that has been making frequent trips to the circle; Lucky J.H has clicked with 3 of his 24 new faces; the works are steady and Garcia does the honors.

Inflamed

Makes first start since an even Del Mar effort almost two years ago; Abrams doesn't ask for all that much from his runners in the a.m., so it can be a tricky read.

Swiss Intrigue

Swiss Yodeler hits with 11 percent of his first-timers in a large sampling and there are some good local moves showing for this 4-year-old.

Star Rising

Capped her preparations with a bullet half-mile from the gate over this layout or Marty Jones; Desert Code is 1-for-19 with newbies to this point in his stud career ; Baze/Jones adds to appeal.

Sixy Eddie

One of the trio to have started and it's dificult to get enthused as she has hit the brakes on each occasion; looking elsewhere.

Zen Envy

Kafwain is a 10 percent debut sire with modest San Luis Rey works showing.

Our Love Affair

Cyclotron, who did his work for trainer Headley, is 3-for-18 with beginners; the usual crisp moves for this barn and this one deserves a long look.

Yodelmesomemagic

Been on the bench just over a year and switches to the Cerin barn; adds to the guessing game.

Grace Victoria

Debuted in a 4-horse field for O'Neill, looked good up front for a half and then called it a day at midstretch when the favorite engaged; right to move forward with the effort under her belt.