Look past last race to find Impossible Task
Beyond objective factors such as speed and class, picking winners also requires a great deal of subjectivity. That is, elements not clearly defined by a figure or finish position.
In other words, an opinion.
It is a recurring theme Saturday on a Los Alamitos card with four maiden-claiming races, four claiming races for winners, and a mishmash one-mile allowance that is the featured eighth race. In many races Saturday, handicappers must rely on intuition to find their way.
Based on speed and class, Houndstooth enters the first-level allowance among the top contenders. However, his ability to stay a mile is unquantified. Third in a sprint last out, Houndstooth has never tried two turns. The field includes a trio of turf-synthetic specialists running on dirt, and a longshot who is unproven in Southern California.
But the most likely winner of the race-8 allowance is Impossible Task, despite his next-to-last finish in his most recent start.
Impossible Task’s trainer is John Sadler, his rider is apprentice Emily Ellingwood. Sadler and Ellingwood have quietly emerged as a productive combo the past year, teaming to go 7 for 16. As for the horse, Impossible Task is in the right spot Saturday.
A 6-year-old gelding, Impossible Task has earned figures that match, or approach, the 88 Beyer par for a Los Alamitos allowance. His fifth-place comeback last out was his first start in two months, and the race was validated when third place American Admiral won an allowance next out. Impossible Task finished less than two lengths behind that rival.
Proven at two turns, with a five- to seven-pound apprentice weight break and a pressing style, Impossible Task merits horse-to-beat status in the $51,000 allowance.
The question facing Houndstooth is distance. His even-paced sprint style suggests a mile is within reach. As for the trouble he encountered finishing third last out, it appeared to be self-inflicted. He lugged inward during the stretch, had to be straightened, finished evenly and galloped out fairly well past the wire. Houndstooth is trained by Steve Miyadi and ridden by Tyler Baze.
Also in the field are turf/synthetic specialists Bud Knight, Moraweth, and Explosive. Vicente’s Shadow, previously based at Emerald Downs and Turf Paradise, is a longshot.
Perhaps the most intriguing sprint-to-route runner Saturday is claiming filly Red Panty Night in race 2. Although she has never run long and finished a distant third last out in a similar nonwinners-of-two $25,000 claiming race, video replay shows she ran much better than her finish indicates.
Red Panty Night was visibly uncomfortable on the backstretch and into the turn, as if she was annoyed by kickback. When she was finally guided outside in the clear, she leveled off and finished with run. She lost by more than six lengths, and galloped out in front of the field.
Stretching to one mile Saturday, Red Panty Night enters race 2 as the most probable winner on the card. Of course, that is merely an opinion.