Longshots take worst of Kentucky Derby draw
A day after morning-line favorite Monomoy Girl had her chances of winning the Kentucky Oaks lessened when she drew post 14 for the Kentucky Oaks, Tuesday’s draw for the Kentucky Derby proved of far lesser consequence, at least for many of the race’s leading contenders.
Favored Justify landed cozily in post 7, outside seemingly outclassed speed horses Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway. Audible landed post 5, the winningest post in the race’s history, with Good Magic, last year’s champion juvenile, alongside him in 6. Bold d’Oro seemed to draw fine in post 11, though he will be one of the first to load in the gate.
The losers at the draw were those that figured as longshots anyway. Firenze Fire, fourth in the Gotham and Wood Memorial, drew the dreaded rail, and Free Drop Billy, whose recent form is almost as uninspiring, landed the next-worst spot in post 2.
Combatant had the misfortunate of drawing wide post after wide post in Arkansas this winter, and saw the same thing happen to him at the Derby draw by getting post 20. Because he doesn't have the speed to clear traffic, another wide trip seems a virtual certainty.
Perhaps as unfortunate was Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, a stalking/closing type that is two spots away in post 18. He also figures to have to rally going the long way around – barring a parting of the horse seas to his inside.
Although Mendelssohn’s draw is seemingly beneficial in that he is outside many of the speed horses, I don’t share the accepted notion that being outside on the main gate in post 14 – with a gap to the auxiliary gate - is a plus. Whether in the Derby or any other race, horses will often break toward where they sense daylight, which can cause a momentum-slowing bumping incident with another moving toward the same spot at the start.
All this said, the adage that horses can get good trips from bad posts and bad trips from good posts is valid. How these horses break should prove more influential than their posts, certainly for those that didn’t draw starting positions toward the inside or outside.