Longchamp: French 2000 Guineas lacks a standout

The Poule d’Essai des Poulains, or French 2000 Guineas, had a direct bearing on U.S. racing last year, as its victor, Karakontie, would go on the upset the Breeders’ Cup Mile late in the season, but if there is a horse of Karakontie’s quality in this year’s edition of the Poulains, to be run Sunday at Longchamp, he has not yet shown himself.

Highland Reel, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the tepid antepost favorite for the one-mile race, which will be contested on good-to-soft going, but O’Brien hasn’t won a French 2000 Guineas since 2007, and Highland Reel, unraced since winning a Group 2 last July at Goodwood, probably has no definitive edge on several other lightly raced colts in the Guineas.

Karakontie’s owner-breeder, the Flaxman Stables of the Niarchos family, has one such horse, Tale of Life, who scored a seven-length win in his lone start at 2 and was second in his 2015 debut. A Japanese-bred like Karakontie, though trained by Pascal Bary rather than Jonathan Pease, Tale of Life didn’t have an ideal trip last out in the Prix Machado, a course and distance Guineas prep, and was beaten by New Bay.

New Bay is one of two in the race for trainer Andre Fabre, and will generally be rated Fabre’s “B” team behind Make Believe. Make Believe has raced only on soft and heavy ground, and might appreciate the better going Sunday as well as the short step up in trip to one mile.

Also in the race is Godolphin-owned Maftool, last seen finishing a distant second to Kentucky Derby eighth-place finisher Mubtaahij in Dubai. Muhaarar upset the Greenham Stakes at Newbury last out but has not raced beyond seven furlongs in his six starts.

Ervedya solid in French 1000 Guineas

Ervedya looks a strong favorite and difficult to oppose in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, the French 1000 Guineas, also on the Sunday card at Longchamp.

The top-rated 2-year-old filly in France last year, Ervedya looked, if anything, better at 3 when she started her campaign with an easy win in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence over a straight-course mile at Maisons-laffitte last month.

Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget for the Aga Khan, and with retained rider Christophe Soumillon to ride, Ervedya won her first three starts last year, finished third over a six-furlong trip probably short of her best in the Group 1 Prix Morny, and concluded her juvenile campaign with a good second from a poor draw to Found in the Group 1 Marcel Boussac last fall.

Found, the filly who beat her in that race, is not running Sunday, nor is any filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, and in fact, it is difficult to find a worthy challenger. Ameenah has a touch of quality and, like Ervedya, a right to improve in her second start of the season, but Ervedya comfortably handled her in April and simply looks the better filly. Mexican Gold, 2 for 2 facing lesser opposition for Juddmonte Farms and trainer Andre Fabre, would appear to be the unexposed potential improver.