Long layoff stamps Delta Girl as vulnerable favorite
If talent were the only handicapping consideration in Friday’s ninth race at Gulfstream Park, a first-level optional $16,000 claimer with a $43,000 purse, Delta Girl would be a standout. She showcased her skill in her only start, whipping a Gulfstream Park maiden field by 8 1/4 lengths and earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 89.
But there are other key factors at play Friday, suggesting that Delta Girl could be vulnerable as the probable favorite. Though Delta Girl is a promising filly, she is disadvantaged in by a lack of recency and seasoning. She hasn’t started since her auspicious debut on Aug. 13, 2015, and while she has been away, her rivals have gained experience.
A 4-year-old homebred by Majestic Warrior raced by Kinsman Stable and trainer Ralph Nicks, Delta Girl has breezed consistently since May 29, capped by a bullet five-furlong move in 59.37 seconds July 10. Tyler Gaffalione rides.
In contrast to Delta Girl, two of her chief rivals, Smartly Agree and Curlin’s Approval, are taking class drops from the Azalea Stakes at Gulfstream on Summit of Speed Day, July 2. Smartly Agree was second to the heavily favored Dearest at 28-1 odds in that race, while Curlin’s Approval ran fifth.
Only one of the nine entrants, the longshot Sherry Angel, races for the optional $16,000 claiming tag in this 6 1/2-furlong dirt race.
Race 9
Key Contenders
Delta Girl, by Majestic Warrior
Beyer: 89
Formulator Fact: Nicks is 3 for 15 over the past five years with first-out maiden winners racing in allowances or optional claimers in their second races. He is 9 for 73 over the same time period with horses returning after layoffs of 180 days or more.
Blame Dixie, by Blame
Last 3 Beyers: 74-74-74
◗ In two starts at this class level on dirt this summer, she managed a pair of runner-up finishes, with her most recent start June 25 resulting in a nose loss.
Curlin’s Approval, by Curlin
Last 2 Beyers: 74-78
◗ Gained valuable experience in the Azalea, which marked just her second start after a maiden victory, and seems like the filly most likely to improve off her last race.
Smartly Agree, by Smart Strike
Last 3 Beyers: 85-65-65
◗ Makes the third start of her form cycle after two consecutive seconds and is a horse who can handle any track condition on dirt, from fast tracks to slop. She was cross-entered as a main-track-only runner in a 1 1/16-mile race Thursday.