Litfin's preview: Rain likely to alter card

Wed., Aug. 13, preview

WEATHER HANDICAPPER: RAIN A SURE BET

Wednesday’s 12:25 p.m. steeplechase opener is the first of five scheduled turf races, but if the meteorological prognosticators are correct, the jump race, a $65,000 preliminary allowance at 2 1/16 miles, will be the only one that stays on the grass.

According to weather.com, there was a 100 percent chance of rain for Saratoga Springs, N.Y., and surrounding areas from Tuesday night into Wednesday, with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected and heavy thunderstorms possible throughout the afternoon.

CONDITIONS SUBECT TO CHANGE

A washout would necessitate distance changes for both races scheduled for the inner turf course. Race 4, a starter allowance for fillies and mares scheduled for 1 1/16 miles, would instead be run at 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Race 8, a preliminary allowance for New York-bred fillies and mares scheduled for one mile, would instead be run at seven furlongs on the main track.

The two scheduled turf sprints on the Mellon course offer the day’s richest purses, and they would remain at the same distance in the event of a surface change.

Race 6, an optional claimer with second-level allowance conditions, carries a $90,000 purse and attracted the multiple stakes winners Great Attack and Strong Impact, each with earnings in excess of $500,000. If it is taken off the grass, Eastwood likely will inherit the role of favorite on the strength of a sharp second at Belmont last out against Confrontation, who subsequently won his third-level allowance condition here last week.

Race 9 is the $100,000 Troy Stakes, where dual Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup winner Tightend Touchdown and the razor-sharp Spring to the Sky loom the principal protagonists on grass. Although they have both won on wet dirt, the favorite on such footing would be Dads Caps (entered for the main track only), who has raced exclusively in graded stakes this year, including a front-running upset of the Grade 1 Carter Handicap.

CONNECTIONS OF ISABELLE DOING A RAIN DANCE

Muck and mire would probably be just ducky for Isabelle, who drops back to an available New York-bred allowance spot after chasing a blazing pace in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes.

Isabelle had won her two previous starts at Belmont prior to the Victory Ride, beating off-the-turf maidens in the mud by better than a dozen lengths and returning just over three weeks later to lead throughout the Bouwerie Stakes for trainer Lisa Lewis.

Isabelle’s regular jockey is Alex Solis, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame last week and remains stuck on 4,991 career victories after going winless through limited opportunities so far at the meet.

Here’s Zealicious, a four-time winner on wet tracks, finds an easier spot as well after missing the break against multiple stakes winner Willet two weeks ago.

HORSE TO WATCH

FINAL REDEMPTION
Trainer: Graham Motion
Last race: Aug. 11, 8th
Finish: 2nd by 1/2
Coming off a debut win at six furlongs, this 3-year-old filly by Hard Spun stretched out from post 9 with a short run to the clubhouse turn, raced wide throughout, and finished gamely to just miss in the Tenski Stakes to far more-experienced opponents.