Litfin's preview: Making the adjustment

Thursday, May 1 preview

BACK TO BELMONT

Chalk players were shooting fish in a barrel across town, as favorites went 86 for 210 at Aqueduct’s spring meet for a .409 batting average.
Things typically become less clear through the early stages at Belmont, however, as handicappers slowly become reacquainted with turf sprints and the middle-distance grass races that begin with a dogleg into the backstretch on the Widener course, and start right on the opening bend on the inner turf.

At last year’s spring-summer session, favorites on turf were just 65 for 234 (28 percent).

Recent form at the Big A tends to be overbet on the mammoth 12-furlong dirt oval known as Big Sandy. Nowadays, layoff horses with back form at Belmont are often ready and well meant first time back.

OFF THE TURF OPENING DAY

The bad news is that after rain Wednesday and lingering fog and showers, all three scheduled turf races have been moved to the main track, including the featured $100,000 Elusive Quality Stakes (race 8).

Keeping track of off-the-turf distance changes is easy at Belmont: everything stays at the same distance, the only exception being grass races carded at longer than 1 1/8 miles, which shorten up to that distance.

David Jacobson, fresh off a second straight spring title at Aqueduct, has three of the four dirt-only entrants in the Elusive Quality - Candyman E, Cease, and Tenango – all of whom have been idle for at least several weeks. While they all handle off going, so does Integrity, who ran his lifetime Beyer Figure top of 98 winning a muddy seven-furlong allowance here last June for Chad Brown. Integrity is 2 for 2 this year, and could be the controlling speed.

DARLEY FILLIES TO WATCH

We should get a gauge on how Big Sandy is playing through the early part of the afternoon, when Kiaran McLaughlin sends out a pair of Darley Stable homebreds, Kate Greenaway in the meet opener, and Antipathy in race 3.

Both look like potential pacesetters. Kate Greenaway chased a 4-5 shot from the rail in her recent debut at Aqueduct on April 4, a day when speed had a big edge. She stretches out to a mile with first-time Lasix, and will try to turn the tables on Mei Ling, who ran on late to beat her by a couple lengths while fighting the bias. Mei Ling, second back from a layoff for Mike Hushion, was second best twice at Belmont fall.

Antipathy comes out of a prolonged pace duel with the very sharp Natalie Victoria in an optional claimer with third-level allowance conditions, and drops to the second-level variety. A clean break from the rail makes her tough to catch, with her prime opposition expected to be Belle Gallantey, who has been freshened up since winning both starts off a claim by Rudy Rodriguez, including a decision over Natalie Victoria.