Litfin's preview: Biggest day of fall meet
Super Saturday
It’s the biggest day of Belmont’s fall meet, with six graded stakes worth $3.4 million on tap, comprised of the Kelso Handicap, the Beldame, and an all-Grade 1 pick four with a $500,000 guaranteed pool on the Flower Bowl, Vosburgh, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Itsmyluckyday heads Kelso
Itsmyluckyday, coming off a hard-fought win over Moreno in the Woodward, totes top weight of 121 pounds and may be the shortest-priced favorite of the day in the Kelso, which kicks off the stakes action at 2:27 p.m. Eastern.
The 4-year-old Itsmyluckyday is not Breeders’ Cup nominated, so depending on how he handles the cut-back, he could be supplemented to the Classic for $200,000, or the Dirt Mile for $120,000, or simply wait for the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct four weeks later.
“We have options, and after the race we’ll make some decisions,” said trainer Eddie Plesa Jr.
Wide-open Beldame
A wide open Beldame is positioned as race 5, making it the cashing leg of the pick five and the early pick four.
Stopchargingmaria bypassed Untapable in last week’s Cotillion, and meets older for the first time after winning the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama, a schedule that worked nicely for recently retired stablemate Princess of Sylmar in last year’s Beldame.
However, Stopchargingmaria’s Alabama was historically slow, and she will need to run back to her CCA Oaks in order to be competitive; working in her favor is a 3-for-3 record at 1 1/8 miles.
Belle Gallantey, who led Princess of Sylmar a merry chase in the Delaware Handicap, looks to rebound after stopping in a muddy renewal of the Personal Ensign, and may be able to control the pace breaking from the outside.
Brown goes three-deep in Flower Bowl
Chad Brown sends out three of the nine fillies and mares in the Flower Bowl, and all among the trio of Alterite, Stephanie’s Kitten, and Watsdachances are graded stakes winners at Belmont.
Abaco and Strathnaver, the one-two finishers in the Ballston Spa five weeks ago, are among the other logical threats that all figure to be chasing Viva Rafaela, who has had the lead at some point in each of her last four stakes outings.
Tannery, a close second in the 2013 Flower Bowl, has posted five of her six grass wins on non-firm ground, so she may appreciate Thursday’s rain.
Speed duel in Vosburgh?
Private Zone was loose on the lead winning last year’s Vosburgh, but the out-of-towner will have to deal with the speedy Happy My Way in defense of his title, while Dads Caps, Ribo Bobo, and Salutos Amigos project to be pressing those two from close range.
On paper, the matchup seemingly sets up well for Palace, a New York-bred who loves Belmont (3-2-0 from 5 starts), and tries to make it three straight Grade 1 wins after running down Happy My Way in the A.G. Vanderbilt and coming back four weeks later to take the Forego.
Coup de Grace, compromised by a fairly slow pace in the King’s Bishop, could benefit from contested fractions in his first attempt vs. older sprinters.
Main Sequence seeks third straight U.S. win in Turf Classic
Main Sequence, who has started off his U.S. career for Graham Motion with narrow victories against Twilight Eclipse in the United Nations and against Imagining in the Sword Dancer, takes on those foes again in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.
“I guess you’d say his biggest flaw right now is worrying about the gate,” said Motion. “He beat a couple of serious horses [in the Sword Dancer] and spotted them three lengths at the start. It tells me that he’s extremely talented – probably more talented than we realized.”
Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution, who respectively won the Sword Dancer and Arlington Million on the same day in 2013, form a potent entry for Ken and Sarah Ramsey and Chad Brown.
Travers top three meet older in Gold Cup
The top three finishers in the Travers - V.E. Day, Wicked Strong, and Tonalist - step in against older stakes horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and they project to get an honest pace with speed merchants Moreno and Big Cazanova having to hustle for early position from their outside posts.
Tonalist, who expended too much energy chasing Bayern in the Travers, takes the blinkers off and may appreciate returning to the surface of his wins in the Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes.
“He’s been working without the blinkers after the Travers and has been working very well,” said Christophe Clement.
Also likely to enjoy the return to “Big Sandy” is Zivo, who overhauled Moreno in the Suburban for his sixth straight win – a streak that ended with a fourth in the Woodward after a designed eight-week freshening.
Horse to watch
KNOCKHER OFF
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Last race: Sept. 25, 7th
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/2
Beyer: 75
Clipped heels and stumbled badly at the break, was floated wide rallying into the stretch and finished gamely behind an odds-on winner in muddy return from layoff of nearly 10 months.