Litfin's Belmont pick four for Saturday

ELMONT, N.Y. – They’ve come from far and wide for the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks, a pair of seven-figure stakes for 3-year-olds that are the first and third legs of a pick four with a $500,000-guaranteed pool on Saturday’s newly created “Stars and Stripes” program at Belmont Park.

Here’s an overview of the sequence as of early afternoon Friday, after the turf courses received a rainy brush from Hurricane Arthur that served to remove some of the “summer sting” from the footing.

RACE 7

Not feeling the love for Toast of New York (#1), who was off the board at 66-1 in his turf debut last summer, has been on synthetic surfaces ever since, and beat a suspect group in the UAE Derby when last seen.

The other Europeans don’t seem like world-beaters, either: Adelaide (#4) has handled rain-softened ground, but the Belmont Derby is his fourth race in four countries in less than two months. Gailo Chop (#7) is just okay. Pornichet (#8) goes off a private purchase by the savvy Gai Waterhouse after a respectable third in a Group 1.

I was on Dance With Fate (#6) when he missed fourth by a half-length in the Kentucky Derby through a rough trip, which took place on short rest on his third-best surface, and I’m am anticipating a breakout effort from the Blue Grass winner.

Gala Award (#11) and Flamboyant (#5) are tough to separate after finishing heads apart in the Pennine Ridge. They will try to catch Bobby’s Kitten (#3), a headstrong type who hasn’t been past 1 1/16 miles on grass.

The “A” contenders: 5, 6, 8, 11
The “B” contenders: 1, 3, 4, 7

RACE 8

Simply put, Romansh wins if he fires, which he has done in each of three starts under Jose Ortiz, beginning with a blowout win in the Discovery over the Brooklyn’s one-two finishers, Norumbega (#4) and Micromanage (#1).

Last Gunfighter (#5) is one point away from eight consecutive Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or better at seven different tracks.

Moreno (#11) is always hard to gauge, but his Met Mile looks like a toss-out.

The “A” contender: 6
The “B” contenders: 1, 4, 5, 11

RACE 9

It’s a big ask for Xcellence (#7) to come back in three weeks after her second straight Group 1 placing, but this might represent a drop in class.

Minorette (#9) raced wide and might have moved a bit prematurely when edged late by Sea Queen (#11) in the Wonder Again, and she is capable of turning the tables.

Goldy Espony (#1), Room Service (#2), and Flying Jib (#5) seem like the other possibilities.

The “A” contenders: 7, 9, 11
The “B” contenders: 1, 2, 5

RACE 10

Assuming this preliminary allowance for New York-breds stays on turf, and looking past his last race in the mud, Point Roll (#6) has a significant edge based on his maiden win two starts ago.

Based on everyone else’s races over the past 12 months, only the tough-to-trust trio of Mr Algebra (#3), Noosh’s Tale (#7), and Hidden Vow (#12) match up.

The “A” contender: 6
The “B” contenders: 3, 7, 12

Should the last leg be switched to the main track, Four Directions (#9) rates the edge over Spinning for Home (#4), and those would be the respective A and B substitutes.