Litfin: Saratoga pick three play for Thursday, July 31

It’s cloudy and unseasonably cool, and the weather forecast is unsettled with a 50 percent chance of rain through the afternoon.

Whenever this is the case, it’s difficult to come to any conclusions about multi-race exotics where races may or may not stay on turf, so we’ll try to strike early and cash out on the first pick three of the day. Come what may, the jumpers will stay on the grass.

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Race 1

Perhaps it’s akin to banging my head against the wall, but the angle in the A.P. Smithwick is that Jonathan Sheppard’s three-ply entry of Divine Fortune, Barnstorming and Italian Wedding will be overbet.

At age 11, Divine Fortune is best at longer distances than today’s 2 1/16 miles. Likewise, Italian Wedding used this race as a prep race on the way to winning the 2 3/8-mile Turf Writers Cup a year ago.

All Together has beaten many of these at least once for Jack Fisher, who sent out Wednesday’s jump winner Virsito, and won a race over the course at this distance last year.

Spy in the Sky has won three stakes here since 2008, including the 2009 Turf Writers at 20-1 and the 2012 A.P. Smithwick at 25-1.

Demonstrative set the local course record at 2 1/16 miles in 2012 before winning the Turf Writers Cup.

A horses: Sheppard entry; All Together

B horses: Spy in the Sky, Demonstrative

Race 2

None Like Nolan is the most likely winner based on his initial dirt route at Monmouth Park, but it’s not like he towers over this group of 3-year-olds maidens, and the Todd Pletcher trainee also figures to be an underlay.

Rare Eagle and Aggrandizement are closely matched based on their recent clash.

Updraft is a regally bred colt stretching out off a six-furlong debut against The Big Beast, who ran himself into the King’s Bishop by blitzing allowance foes last weekend.

Warrior’s Hero is a New York-bred who is not overmatched off an improved second start at Belmont.

A horses: None Like Nolan; Updraft

B horses: Aggrandiizement, Rare Eagle, Warrior’s Hero

Race 3

Hopefully the rain holds off until this turf sprint for New York-bred fillies and mares is in the books.

Neck of the Moon has won twice from three starts over the course, and projects for a good pace scenario sitting behind the speed.

White Sangria was in career-best form at Gulfstream Park earlier this year, and had a good sharpener when brought back from a layoff closing week at Belmont.

Image of Noon has improved as a 4-year-old, and could be rolling late if Henry’s Gal, Hot Squeeze and White Sangria all go out winging.

Uncle Southern is an alert breaker and close by the numbers.

A horse: Neck of the Moon

B horses: Hot Squeeze, Image of Noon, Uncle Southern, White Sangria