Litfin: Saratoga pick four for Saturday, July 25
The late pick four on Saturdays at the Spa offers a $500,000 guaranteed pool, except for Whitney Day ($750,000), Travers Day ($1 million), and Woodward Day ($750,000).
The suggestion here is for bettors to try and take advantage of them. While they don’t offer any real monetary advantage in and of themselves unless the guarantee isn’t reached (which never happens), they attract a higher percentage of what the sharpies refer to as “dead money” and tend to pay handsomely compared with win parlays. Last year, this is how the seven Saturday $2 late pick four payoffs compared to a $2 win parlay:
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Date (feature) Winners paid Parlay Late pick four
July 19 (Diana) 15.40, 11.60, 24.60, 3.90 2,142 4,021
July 26 (Jim Dandy) 5.70, 13.40, 6.40, 16.00 977 720
Aug. 2 (Whitney) 6.20, 6.20, 22.00, 5.40 570 884
Aug. 9 (Fourstardave) 6.60, 4.90, 6.70, 19.20 520 980
Aug. 16 (Alabama) 29.00, 7.10, 4.00, 21.40 2,203 3,765
Aug. 23 (Travers) 10.60, 7.70, 10.60, 41.00 4, 434 4,614
Aug. 30 (Woodward) 53.00, 10.60, 7.70, 51.50 27,847 28,203
The pick four paid nearly double the parlay on Diana Day and Fourstardave Day, more than half again as much Whitney Day and Alabama Day, and marginally better Travers Day and Woodward Day. The only payoff below the parlay occurred Jim Dandy Day, which, naturally, was the one this writer managed to hit.
We’ll take a swing on Diana Day with the following play, in main and backup format:
8TH RACE: Plainview (7) is the one to catch and beat on the class drop. If he falters, it’s between Taghleeb (3), Zambian Dream (4), and Barrel of Love (11).
Main – 7
Backups – 3, 4, 11
9TH RACE: Cocked and Loaded (8) showed much better gate speed in the Tremont, and ran down a game Paynes Prairie (7), who held stubbornly after dueling for the lead. We’re giving those two the edge over He’s Comin in Hot (6) and Percolator (10), who also rate inclusion in the play.
Main – 7, 8
Backups – 6, 10
10TH RACE: Stephanie’s Kitten (2) has been beaten a half-length and a neck in the last two renewals of the Diana; expecting the pace to unfold a bit differently than in the New York most recently. The vastly improved Tepin (1) and the rejuvenated My Miss Sophia (6) are my best alternatives.
Main – 2
Backups – 1, 6
11TH RACE: Ruble (6) tried a stake off a freshening, and now returns to the level of his daylight victory two starts back, along with a switch back to Corey Lanerie. Looking Cool (8) makes his first start at Saratoga since the 2013 Jim Dandy, and was claimed from both starts at Belmont. Others to include in backup mode are Sir Bond (1), Sailmate (2), Comandante (7), and main speed Classic Sala (10).
Main – 6, 8
Backups – 1, 2, 7, 10