Litfin: Saratoga pick four play for Thursday, Aug. 7
If you specialize in dirt sprints, Thursday’s card is not for you because there are none to be found on the 10-race program that gets underway with the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes over the jumps at 12:25 p.m.
Race 9 is an $80,000 optional claimer with third-level allowance conditions that could easily pass for a graded stakes race – in fact, four in the field are dropping from graded stakes, including Lochte, a Grade 1 winner this year.
Lochte wears an aluminum pad, however, and his form has deteriorated since the spring, capped by an eighth-place finish in the Oceanport.
I’m going to build a late pick four play around two others exiting Monmouth stakes, Ghurair and Tetradrachm, who were compromised by tough trips in the United Nations and Monmouth Stakes, respectively.
Ghurair finished explosively in winning his second start in the United States and a month later was beaten less than three lengths in the United Nations while shuffled back and still able to gain ground into a last three-eighths run in a searing 34.76 seconds.
Tetradrachm has run in eight graded stakes since a big win at this condition at Saratoga last summer. After a wide trip from post 13 on the Jersey Shore, he figures to get more aggressive handling with the switch back to Luis Saez, who put the gelding on the lead twice at Gulfstream in Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes.
In the surrounding races:
The scratch of morning-line favorite Manner of Speaking in race 7 leaves just a handful of New York-bred maiden claimers I want any part of: Fire Ship, Tenacious Indeed, Race and Shine, Make Your Point, and Kevin’s Steel.
In race 8, Defiant is the one to catch in a preliminary allowance dash on turf, but the erstwhile $16,000 claimer could bounce off a big-figure comeback win in late June. We’re also using the consistent Heart Doctor and the uncoupled duo of Moon Song and Otokogi, who switch to turf for the red-hot Graham Motion.
We’ve whittled down the anchor leg, a maiden special weight turf sprint, to the quintet of Jennys Creek, Honeychild, Rose Quartz, Gu Gu Beans, and Home to Carrowkeel.
So, a 5x4x2x5 play is 200 combinations at 50 cents each, which works out to $100:
6, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 4, 5, 7 with 1, 7 with 3, 4, 7, 10, 11