Litfin: Pick three play for Gulfstream on Sunday, March 1
After heavy rain flooded parts of the backside and parking lot Saturday morning at Gulfstream Park, track conditions were very much in flux as an assigned “pick-something play of the day” for Sunday was contemplated.
Five races scheduled for grass are sprinkled throughout the card in such a way that the only multi-race exotics strictly for dirt are pick three sequences on races 4, 5, and 6 and 5, 6, and 7, all of which are six-furlong sprints.
Given the situation, discretion seems like the better part of valor, and we will merely dip a toe into those two pools with some “action” bets.
The fulcrum of both plays will be race 6, a maiden special weight in which THEPARTYNEVERENDS (#4) comes off a troubled third in her debut at odds on and is essentially surrounded by a handful of first-time starters. The $700,000 filly by Smart Strike is a half-sister to the Grade 2-placed sprinter Laurie’s Rocket and quite obviously is the one to beat for Todd Pletcher.
I’m also going to take one of the first-timers at half-strength, WOMEN WIN (#6), whose half-brother, Captain Serious, won the first three starts of his career last year, including the Mike Lee in stakes-record time for these same connections. Given the recent news, I’ll take a rooting interest for Mike Hushion, truly one of the good guys on my home circuit.
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There is nothing esoteric about race 4, in which Jorge Navarro has the two fastest horses in NO ACT (#5) and GRAND BAMBU (#3). I would press the former, unless the track is still wet, which would move the latter up by several lengths.
Race 5 also appears to go through Navarro, who drops CAN’T MISS (#5) down to a $20,000 claimer, along with a switch to Javier Castellano. She looks to be loose on the lead, but this is a spot where a handful of other contenders have Beyer Speed Figure tops that give them a shot. We’ll also use HUAQUECHULA (#3) and SLYNNINBERG (#7).
With two exceptions, I’d buy just about anyone in race 7, a $12,500 maiden claimer in which a 40 Beyer may be enough to win.
The ticket for races 4-5-6 is: 3, 5 with 3, 5, 7 with 4, 6. I would hit that again a time or two with just the 4 in the third leg.
The ticket for races 5-6-7 is: 3, 5, 7 with 4, 6 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Once again, pressing the 4 in the second leg.