Litfin: Pick three play for Belmont for Saturday, Sept. 13

It would be nice to play the pick five or either of Belmont’s two pick fours – especially the late pick four with a $300,000-guaranteed pool. But such thoughts are discouraged by the placement of 2-year-old maiden races filled with first-time starters in such a way as to make them totally blind items.

The majority of horses in race 5, the cashing leg of the pick five and early pick four, have not raced.

In race 9, two of the nine 2-year-olds have run, and both were off the board, which leaves seven first-time starters to consider in the late pick four’s third leg. One might hazard a guess that Todd Pletcher’s fast-working Daredevil is a runner, but without a look at any wagering activity on the race, a guess is all it is.

So, I’m abstaining from those pools today, although I’ll be perfectly happy to start some pick threes with race 5 after getting a more detailed look at the weather, the tote board, and what the newcomers actually look like.

For purposes of this exercise, and assuming Mother Nature’s cooperation, we’ll play an all-turf pick three on races 6-8. With good-sized fields and no obvious standouts, it has some good-paying potential, and I’d rather tie up multirace money in the two stakes as opposed to unraced juveniles.

Race 6

In his best races, Handsome Dennis (#4) feels like the one to beat off a troubled trip, but recent maiden winners Aheadofthecurve (#5), With Expression (#9), Dominate (#10), and Giant Jo (#11) are realistically spotted in this restricted claimer for non-winners of two races. On general principle, I can’t use the 8-year-old Cincinnati Kid or 1-for-28 Sonnyandpally, but their 74 Beyer Speed Figure tops put them in the hunt.

A – 4
B – 5, 9, 10, 11

Race 7

No matter who wins this wide-open Noble Damsel, you’ll be able to do a 20-20 hindsight check after the race and find some things to like about whichever mare wins. Seven of them have a Beyer peak in the 87-90 range this year, and the import Annecdote (#6) classes up off her company lines in England.

Alaura Michele (#2) has beaten some of these and may be a square price after being taken out of her best game dueling for the lead in the De La Rose.

At 10-1 on the morning line, Julie’s Love (#8) is a price inclusion off her back form, although sparingly raced over the past 14 months.

Devilish Love (#3), Love Train (#4), and Tokyo Time (#5) step up off second-level allowance wins and are a combined 7 for 8 on firm turf in their 4-year-old seasons.

A – 2, 6
B – 3, 4, 5, 8
C – 9

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Race 8

My “Spidey Sense” is tingling about Ball Dancing (#10), who makes her U.S. debut and first start since finishing a half-length behind new stablemate Xcellence (#1) in the Prix de Diane. I’m not thrilled with the outside draw, though, and Xcellence has the rail for the cutback to a better distance.

Off their best races, I don’t know how you separate Sea Queen (#5), A Little Bit Sassy (#6), and Daring Dancer (#8).

I’ll only be alive to Walk Close (#4) and Duff One (#9) with an A-A start.

A – 1, 10
B – 5, 6, 8
C – 4, 9