Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Wednesday, July 30

After washouts Sunday and Monday, we’re back to beautiful weather, with the main track fast and the turf courses labeled “good.”

A reminder that because the 12:25 p.m. opener is a jump race, the pick five covers races 2-6, while the early pick four, as usual, is on races 2-5.

To my mind, the presence of Willet in race 3 is a free bingo square that essentially turns the pick five into a pick four and the pick four into a pick three.

Unfortunately, bettors playing either of those multirace exotics will be flying on instruments with race 5, as the cash-out leg for both is a maiden special weight for 2-year-old New York-bred fillies that is comprised primarily of first-time starters.

Among my top picks, On a Snowy Evening (race 2) is 5-1 on the morning line and may wind up at palatable odds. She has run a series of even-paced races while fairly close to the lead in shorter races, and it’s conceivable that she can get to the front off a drop to maiden claimers and a stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles.

Bonus nugget: Mike Welsch and Mike Vesce noted in today’s clocker report (available at drf.com/clocker) that On a Snowy Evening put in a very good gallop-out in her July 21 breeze on the main track, another indicator that the Frost Giant filly might like the extra distance.

So, the plan is to concede race 3 to Willet, forget about trying to figure out who’s live or not live in race 5, and make a pick three play on races 2-3-4 in an attempt to add a couple of points to On a Snowy Evening’s odds.

Per each unit invested:
On a Snowy Evening (#3) with Willet (#6) with ALL (six combinations)
On a Snowy Evening with Willet with 2-3-4-5 (four combinations)
On a Snowy Evening with Willet with 3-4-5