Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Wednesday, July 23
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – My thoughts on today’s card can be broken down into two highlights:
First, the conditions outside might be a big factor. It’s already into the 80s and very humid in mid-morning, and the atmosphere is going to be “juiced” for mid-afternoon storms. The weather prognosticators say there’s a 60 percent chance of significant rain as a cool front moves through, and around here, it can be pouring in one spot and dry in a nearby area. This necessitates approaching multirace exotics with extreme caution, as there’s nothing worse than mapping out complex if-then pick-something tickets, only to have turf races washed off after all bets are locked in.
Second, there are numerous iffy-looking favorites I might try to beat, depending on how short they are, how they look, etc., as follows:
Overspending (2nd, 7-5 morning line): This $340,000 Repole-Pletcher newcomer is on the outside in what is now a field of six after scratches; she’s got some works that match up with last week’s debut winner Blame Jim for the same outfit, but I’m not hearing much backstretch buzz for her.
Got Lucky (3rd, 1-1): Another Todd Pletcher favorite, and this one is dropping from graded stakes to a preliminary allowance. The company lines are flashy, but she’s got no early speed – in fact, she’s had gate issues repeatedly – and no edge at all in terms of Beyer Speed Figures.
Girlaboutown (5th, 8-5): This second-time starter comes off a good second to her more experienced entrymate Star Grazing in the mud July 4. She’s fastest of the experienced starters, but if there has been an A.P. Indy to ever win at Saratoga at six furlongs or shorter, I can’t recall it. I want to see how first-timers Verismilitude and Moonlight Fantasy look and how they’re bet.
Artemis Agrotera (6th, 2-5): Another dropdown from graded stakes and obviously best of these if firing on all cylinders. But her last good race was the Frizette last October, and her works have been less than overwhelming. I might try Irish Sweepstakes the third time back from a layoff and turning back after a couple turf routes.
Go Appeal (8th, 5-2): Claimed out of a win for $50,000 on June 21 that ran his record to 4 for 6, including a trio of 90-plus Beyers. This seems like a suspicious drop to $25,000. Moreover, the pace complexion changed significantly when two outside speeds – Photon and Love to Run – were scratched. That will help Shankopotamus, and if the rains come, that will help him, too.