Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 31
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – The last Sunday at Saratoga is Exhibit A of waiting out the weather as long as possible.
As of late morning on Tom Durkin’s final day behind the microphone, it’s overcast, warm, and muggy, and the atmosphere is juiced for action.
The forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, and going by Mother Nature’s past performances, the heavy stuff usually arrives right after bettors have locked in multi-race exotic bets.
The uncertain conditions make things dicey for the pick six, which has a $151,766 carryover from Saturday and doesn’t get under way until race 7 at 4:11 p.m. By that time, it’s anyone’s guess what the skies over Saratoga will look like, but it’s safe to say the Tree Crew is on standby.
I’m basically sitting chilly for now, but here are some thoughts after the first round of scratches. Several main-track-only horses still are in some of the turf races.
Race 3 – The main track was speed favoring to the extreme Saturday, and if that trend continues, it’s hard to see how they’ll catch River Rocks, who has won twice by open lengths since a trainer change to John Terranova. He’ll be odds-on, but there is no one to run with him early, and perhaps we can single him in a small early pick four play before the heavens open up.
Race 5 – If this turf sprint stays on the turf, I may talk myself into fooling around with Night Officer, an erstwhile stakes horse who has been gelded since two starts at Gulfstream last winter. Bruce Brown has quietly had another terrific meet, and this 20-1 shot on the morning line has a stretch punch that could play nicely in a matchup containing several early pace players.
Race 7 – Watching the toteboard for clues about this seven-furlong maiden race for juvenile fillies. Lady Serena is on the rail for Chad Brown, and she’s a half-sister to Honor Code and Noble Tune, who were both debut winners at Saratoga before going on to win stakes later in their 2-year-old seasons.
Also hearing good reports about Kibble, who is being unveiled by Jimmy Jerkens.
Obviously, Feathered is the one to beat after getting beat in a photo at 3-5 by Spinaway contender Winter Dawn.
Race 8 – If … IF … this maiden race stays on the inner turf at a mile, Alexahente had a horror trip when fourth behind Uptown Joe on July 30, and he drew favorably in post 3 while Uptown Joe is marooned on the far outside.
Race 9 – The combination of an outside post and blinkers off likely will enable Big Guy Ian to settle into a relaxed rhythm as he drops from a duel in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, for which he received a huge pace figure, to a preliminary allowance. Bearing in mind how the track played yesterday, I’d like to see him no farther out than the two path around the turn.
Race 10 – Angela Renee, Curalina, and Condo Commando will draw lots of support in the Spinaway, but I’m also giving a look to Winter Dawn at something like 8-1. She has to move up a couple lengths off her debut but was very game to win a stretch battle between horses. See how Feathered, who was in that photo, does in the seventh race.