Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 17

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Not in love with anything per se on Sunday’s card, and it largely is going to be a matter of shopping the tote board and laying in wait for any outlandish value propositions.

On the blind, Tammy the Torpedo will rate serious consideration in race 3, provided she is anywhere near the price of Can’t Happen Here ($10.00), who was yet another 2-year-old debut winner at the meet for Chad Brown and the second in a turf route, along with Startup Nation ($21.20). Brown’s first-time starters don’t necessarily take tons of money at the windows, and it doesn’t seem to matter.

In race 7, Aunty Pearl takes a nominal price rise after being claimed from her second straight win at Belmont and seemingly is the lone speed from a cozy inside post with a short run to the first turn. Saving ground will be a big advantage on the inner course today, as the temporary rails have been removed because of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer being run later on. Lemon Song also showed some early initiative when she led to deep stretch four races back and comes off a wide middle move through a sharp third quarter while wide July 6. She is 15-1 on the morning line, and I may try to hook her up with Aunty Pearl and Tacones in vertical exotics.

Forget about trying to beat Alpha if a mid-afternoon storm hits. There is only a 20 percent chance of that, and as much as Alpha likes a wet Saratoga strip, he is a mere mortal otherwise. He has gotten a lot of local press for wins in the Jim Dandy, Travers, and Woodward the past two years, and that translates to an absurdly low price. I’d take a position on Dawly to rebound from a stumbling start in the Salvator Mile. The gelding has been very reliable on his home circuit for the past year or so, and 3-1 or so would be fair odds on a horse that ran a 106 Beyer Speed Figure two starts ago.

I’m not really strong on the Sword Dancer, thinking that any among a handful could win with the right pace and trip. The one that might be overlooked a bit is War Dancer, whose 99 Beyer for winning the Louisville two starts back makes him a player. He comes off a difficult setup in the Arlington Handicap when he bobbled at the break and still narrowly missed in a paceless race.