Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 10
SARATOGA SPPRINGS, N.Y. – Planning on doing a lot of watching today, as five races for 2-year-olds are scattered all through an 11-race program that kicks off the second half of the meet.
Pending a look at the tote board and pre-race appearances for the opener, the New York-bred first-time starters that look most interesting are Chad Brown’s uncoupled pair of Market Conduct and Tiz Time to Shine, who worked in company from the gate July 26, and Bellamy Way, a David Cannizzo-trained half-brother to Itsagoodtendollars, who has banked more than $400,000 on the New York circuit, as well as three-time stakes winner Goombada Guska.
Based on his troubled-trip debut at Churchill Downs when beaten in a photo, Tiger D is a cinch on paper in race 2 as he drops in with New York-breds with a layover 84 Beyer Speed Figure. He’ll start the early pick four as a solid-looking single.
However, race 4 complicates matters in the early pick four and the pick five, as eight of the 10 juveniles going 1 1/16 miles on the Mellon turf are first-time starters. Among them are Flying Tipat and Miss Always Ready, full sisters to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winners Tapitsfly (2009) and More Than Real (2010), both of whom won at Saratoga earlier in their 2-year-old season.
Lady of Victory could fall through the cracks stretching out after a show of early speed on dirt first time out for Bill Mott on opening day. The $410,000 daughter of War Front has a big (375) Tomlinson turf rating and rates a look for a win bet at upward of 6-1.
In race 7, Blame Dixie is a $300,000 March purchase who reportedly is among the more highly regarded 2-year-olds in Todd Pletcher’s barn. She is going to be a short price, and I’m not trying to beat her, but I’ll Show Me, a $1.3 million half-sister to the 3-year-old filly champ Proud Spell, could be “any kind” for Graham Motion, as the saying goes, and there are several others to observe for future reference.
It’s hard to formulate strong opinions on the Adirondack (race 9) and the Saratoga Special (race 10) as everyone stretches out to 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time.
The pace figures to be hot in the Adirondack given the presence of Take Charge Brandi and Vivian Da Bling, and there’s simply no telling how Cavorting will handle being drawn in between those two after having things her own way against three overmatched opponents at Belmont.
After scratches, the 10 entrants in the Saratoga Special last raced at eight different venues. The only ones not coming off wins are Mr. Z, Cinco Charlie, and Nonna’s Boy, who have the edge of a race over the track after finishing second, third, and fourth in the Sanford. Good luck to those taking a serious stand with anyone in this free for all.
In order to get decent coverage for late pick four purposes, I’d have to use five runners in the Adirondack and at least six in the Special to feel comfortable. I can’t narrow the first and last legs with any confidence, either, so the plan is to approach the latter half of the program on a race-by-race basis and look for contenders at silly prices.