Litfin: How I'd play Saratoga on Monday, July 27
At a meet like Saratoga, where there are so many competitive races and everyone’s trying to win, experience has taught me that it is best not to split hairs between several closely matched horses. Instead, I take my cue from Steve Fierro’s fine book “The Four Quarters of Horse Investing” and simply construct betting lines where contenders get 79 to 81 percentage points (see the odds percentage table in the American Racing Manual), allowing about 20 percent or so for the random results that no amount of study could foresee.
Some procedural guidelines:
• Any top contender who goes off higher than my line is a play.
• If two contenders are higher than the line, the highest-ranked among them gets the bet; if two are above 8-1, both merit a wager.
• If the line on the top choice is 3-2 or lower and he is going off at that price or less, this is a legit favorite, and the race is a pass for win-wagering purposes.
So, follow along with my lines for Monday’s card at Saratoga, and let the odds be your guide.
1st race
Star Dynasty (5-2), Selective Memory (9-2), No Shanks (9-2), Believeinfaith (5-1)
2nd race
Chapman (3-1), Johannesburg Smile (4-1), Wild Finish (9-2), Jeter (5-1)
3rd race
Court Dancer (7-2), Sweet Whiskey (7-2), Jubilant Vision (4-1), Making Havoc (5-1)
4th race
No line. Turf marathon where no one has been the distance and there is a well-connected import.
5th race
Another Incident (7-2), Tiz So Sweet (7-2), Samantha Nicole (9-2), Amulay (9-2)
6th race
Thank You (2-1), Vischer Ferry (7-2), Devilish Grin (3-1)
7th race
No line. This edition of the Lucky Coin is too competitive; many have taken turns beating each other.
8th race
Corner Three (8-5), B Rockett (3-1), Conquest Superstep (9-2)
9th race
Gear Jammer (7-2), My Friend Keith (7-2), Holy Week (9-2), Greg’s Fourwheeler (9-2)