Litfin: How I'd Play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 8

On non-steeplechase days, race 5 has the potential to be a linchpin for multi-race exotics bettors, as it is positioned as the anchor leg of the early pick four and the early pick five.

Although today’s fifth is fairly close on paper among a handful of New York-bred fillies and mares, the Michelle Nihei-trained Bella Kateri, despite not having run since mid-May, has moved up a notch in my estimation in the wake of two performances yesterday by fresh Nihei-trained runners on turf.

In Thursday’s eighth race, Casa Creek, who had not run in two months, was beaten in a photo at nearly 7-1 after being bumped in the stretch (with many observers wondering why there was no inquiry or claim of foul on the winner).

In Thursday’s finale, the 5-year-old mare Given Fire, who had not been better than sixth in any of her previous starts, was never headed and romped by nearly six lengths, paying $39.60 to win. Her only previous start since September of 2012 had come in September of 2013.

Bella Kateri, like Given Fire, is a lightly raced homebred from Farone Stables. She’ll be the favorite, but hopefully a lukewarm one, and will be a single for me in rolling pick three sequences covering races 3-4-5, 4-5-6 and 5-6-7.

In race 6, the scratch of Winter Games, who led throughout the meet opener on July 18, makes Piscesbymoonlight a potential threat to inherit the role of pacesetter in this $35,000 claiming route.

This will be the first time Piscesbymoonlight has run for a tag, and he ran well in back-to-back starts on fast tracks at Aqueduct earlier this year before running on wet dirt and on turf at Belmont.

If he’s in the 4-1 range in what has become a field of five, he’s worth considering.

In the nightcap, Murmure will probably go off lower than her 7-5 morning-line odds, and if the crowd goes overboard, I’ll give Bird Rockette a look at something like 5-1.