Litfin: How I'd play Breeders' Cup Saturday at Santa Anita

Right off the bat, it seems like there’s an opportunity to play against a vulnerable morning-line favorite in the Juvenile Fillies.

I haven’t been overly impressed with Angela Renee (#2), who was equipped with blinkers following the Adirondack, a race in which John Velazquez thought she was somewhat intimidated. Although she rebounded from a no-show Spinaway in the slop to beat Conquest Eclipse in the Chandelier, I like the latter to turn the tables.

Conquest Eclipse (#4) lost position through the middle stages, rallied nicely in the stretch, and galloped out impressively in the Chandelier. She’s my key for multi-race and vertical exotics.

Wonder Gal (#10) has a chance to hit the board at a big price. She was close to Angela Renee in the Adirondack despite being in very tight quarters in the stretch, and raced on the worst part of the track in the Frizette.

I’m not sure how good Cristina’s Journey (#5) is, but she’ll probably get the lead, which is often the way to go at Santa Anita.

I’m against Feathered (#1) and Puca (#8), whose maiden victories were accomplished in extremely slow-paced races.

Dank (#3) and Secret Gesture (#5) in the Filly and Mare Turf will be linchpins for me in the pick four and in rolling pick threes.

Dank has met males in two starts this year, finding traffic in the Dubai Duty Free against $7.9 million earner Just a Way, and failing to fire in her return to Europe. Based on her performances in last year’s Beverly D. and Filly & Mare Turf, she seems like the quintessential poster girl for the benefits of Lasix.

Secret Gesture was a fine second in her seasonal debut, beating Odeliz, who narrowly missed in the recent E. P. Taylor at Woodbine. She went well in two starts on good-to-firm ground after that, notably a neck loss to Sheikzayedroad, who subsequently won the Woodbine’s Northern Dancer.

My only back-ups in the Filly and Mare Turf are the European invader Fiesolana (#6) and Dayatthespa (#4), who could slow things down up front.

Projections suggest it’s going to take a Beyer Figure of 99 or better to win the Filly & Mare Sprint, which, based on their dirt peaks, whittles the contention to Stonetastic (#3), Artemis Agrotera (#5), Leigh Court (#6) and Judy the Beauty (#7). The 99 earned by Southern Honey sticks out as an aberration.

Experience on the quirky hillside course is a must in the Turf Sprint, and by that time-tested principle I’m using Reneesgotzip (#1), Sweet Swap (#3), Tightend Touchdown (#4), Ambitious Brew (#5), Home Run Kitten (#10) and Dimension (#12).

So, the caveman pick four would be:

2, 4, 5, 10 with 3, 4, 5, 6 with 3, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12

The “A” contenders in each leg are: 4 / 3, 5 / 3, 7 / 1, 4, 5

The Juvenile serves as a kind of “intermission” race between the pick four sequences, and my main focus will simply be to see whether Calculator (#1) is really going to be anywhere close to his 15-1 morning-line.

After a wide trip in the FrontRunner, he’s in line for a ground-saving journey from the rail, and several of the main contenders are clustered outside.

At 8-1 or better, Calculator is a win bet, and I’ll fashion a kind of across-the-board wager by keying him second in exactas and third in trifectas with Texas Red (#7), Souper Colossal (#8), Carpe Diem (#9), One Lucky Dane (#11) and Daredevil (#12).

The European contingent in the Turf and the Mile will be the key to my late pick four play.

To start off in the Turf, I’m using only Telescope (#1) and Flintshire (#7), who seem a couple notches superior to the other two invaders from across the pond.

The Sprint just seems impossible, but you can’t bet everyone. Assuming a level playing field, the A list will consist of Secret Circle (#4) and Rich Tapestry (#6).

The B team is Mico Margarita (#7), Big Macher (#10), Work All Week (#13) and Bourbon Courage (#14).

My hopes in the Mile rest primarily with the imports, Veda (#3), Mustajeeb (#4), Toronado (#5), Anodin (#9) and Karakontie (#14).

However, if Summer Front (#10) is really going to be 30-1 – which I highly doubt – he becomes an irresistible horse to fool around with in exactas, tris and supers linked to the Euros.

I’m really lacking firm opinions in the Classic, other than these four:

Cigar Street (#2) will probably run well, but will be a big wise-guy horse who goes off considerably lower than his morning-line odds.

The mugging Shared Belief (#6) overcame in the Awesome Again was a blessing in disguise, because it probably toughened him up after a series of relatively easy races.

Tonalist (#11) still has to prove to me that he’s not simply a “Belmont horse.”

You have to go back nearly a quarter-century to find a Kentucky Derby winner (Unbridled 1990) who came back to win the Classic, and California Chrome (#13) will beat me if he bucks that historical trend.

At 15-1, the sleeper in the field may be Zivo (#8).

The late pick four, caveman style:

1, 7 with 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14 with 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 14 with 2, 6, 8

The A list:

1, 7 with 4, 6 with 3, 5, 9 with 2, 6

Best of luck, and may the horse be with you.