Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, Sept. 7

Although there are only four dirt races Sunday at Belmont, I’m paying especially close attention to the first race to see whether the off-the-pace trend that was apparent Friday and Saturday remains in place.

From nine races on the main track the first two days of the meet, only Glickman went wire to wire, and he was able to set comparatively modest fractions. The eight other winners include several that rallied from mid-pack, as well as Golden Ticket and Solly’s Mischief, who rallied from dead last.

So if Wild Kay gets swallowed up by somebody like Rettalfa in the opener, I’m going to approach the three remaining dirt races – the third, fifth, and ninth – a bit prejudicial toward rate-and-finish types.

For example, under normal circumstances, I’m usually against deep closers like Toasting in the Sky Beauty Stakes. But the logical favorites, Katie’s Garden and Montana Native, may wind up contesting the pace, and if the trend continues, they could be, well, toast.

This perspective makes race 5 a bit difficult because Clark Kent and Smoke Police both showed early speed in their respective debuts. They are surrounded by several first-time starters that have turned in at least one bullet workout heading into this six-furlong maiden sprint.

Ordinarily, I’m all over a potential lone speed horse in sharp form, but unless there is evidence to the contrary in the earlier dirt races, Waco has to be approached with some trepidation as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in race 9, a preliminary allowance at seven furlongs.

Four of the six grass races are for maidens, notably divisions of a special-weight mile for 2-year-old fillies that go as the sixth and eighth races.

In the first heat, Eskenformoney will be a big trip playback after matching the 71 Beyer Speed Figure par for the level despite some trouble three weeks ago, and Doukas must be considered after getting beat in a photo first out for Rudy Rodriguez, who saddled two winners yesterday.

Despite an outside draw, Breach of Duty has to be accorded respect off some promising workouts for Chad Brown, who sent out a handful of winning 2-year-old first-timers upstate.

There’s no turf-route form to go on in the second division, where any among the first-time starters Fila Primera, Class Will Tell, and Tumminia could wind up live on the toteboard; so might Profess, a half-sister to Pulpit who caught a sloppy track at Monmouth Park first time out. Perhaps double will-pays from races 7 to 8 will offer some clues for late pick four purposes.