Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, Oct. 19

Between grabbing some brunch, the 1 p.m. football games, and about five pounds worth of early Breeders’ Cup past performances to get familiar with, I should have enough to do through the first part of the afternoon without getting too caught up in the first half of Sunday’s Belmont card.

Just as well, since the day begins with the first $10,000 claiming race I can remember on the circuit in quite a while, and it’s a real “dropdown derby” that has scratched down to just six, two of which were eased last out.

I don’t have much of an opinion in race 2, other than perhaps to play the treacherous-looking maiden claimer for a potential pace meltdown. It looks like the suspicious dropper Collinito and the frequent lead-blower Bold Runner may hook up from the get-go, and Captain Keon and Pisco Bliss could be the chief beneficiaries, although I wouldn’t necessarily want to bet on that.

With the exception of the tough-to-trust Kate Is a Ten, who is 1 for 22 and a real “bounce” prospect coming off a 71 Beyer Speed Figure top, the other six fillies and mares in race 3 have a bad case of the slows. One supposes Andromeda’s Risk could be sitting on a forward move stretching out from a pair of return sprints, but she hasn’t done much since riding a gold rail to victory in her debut back Jan. 10.

For those who didn’t have enough New York-bred action yesterday, there’s race 4, in which six of the eight statebred maidens are switching from turf to dirt. I leaned toward Literata, who has two half-siblings that are multiple dirt winners, plus the fact that Michael Dilger-trained horses are 5 for 9 first-time blinkers. But the slow-breaking Manner of Speaking also has some pedigree for the switch as half-sister, Ava K. was a multiple sprint stakes winner on dirt.

Race 5 is a good “watch race,” since these 2-year-old maiden fillies have little turf route form to go on, save for the obvious front-end threat Doukas. All in Fun has the pedigree, connections, and workouts to improve stretching out from her sprint debut opening day, but she’ll be among the favorites.

I’ll start paying closer attention when the late pick four rolls around, looking carefully at the betting and pre-race appearance of the 2-year-old maiden fillies in the opening leg (race 7) before finalizing any potential strategies.

Three turf routes close out the late pick four, and since races 8 and 10 are as wide open as can be, I may have to lean on the morning-line favorite Slumber in the Bowl Game Stakes.

Like Christophe Clement said after Discreet Marq’s romp in yesterday’s Ticonderoga, “There’s nothing like a drop,” and Bill Mott is following that advice with Slumber, who has been in Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes for the past year.