Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, May 31
There are some shaky morning-line favorites early on the program, and I may be tempted to make some token plays against the likes of BRENDAN G in the opener and PRIMA STORM in the second race.
Brendan G should appreciate getting back to Belmont, where he posted his second and most-recent victory last October, but in five subsequent starts at Aqueduct, he was beaten at 5-2 or lower four times, and his overall slate now stands at 2-10-3 from 21 outings. He may be best used in the underneath portion of exactas. If they fire their best shots, any among OH BILLY BILLY, SPANGO, and HIDDEN WARRIOR may rate a look depending on their prices and pre-race appearances, and I can see some daily double crisscross tickets in my future.
Prima Storm looks good on paper, but then again, that was the case through all four of his starts in Florida from November through March for Christophe Clement, all of which he lost as the favorite – once at 17-10 and three times at 6-5. I’m tempted to use Clement’s other horse, DECENT, a lightly raced gelding who was beaten less than five lengths in a maiden special on turf first time out at Gulfstream, before chasing runaway winner Dekalb County’s fast fractions on the main track at Belmont three weeks ago. IT’S A GIVEN is tough to trust after being eased in his debut, but Bill Mott’s special-weight dropdowns are typically well meant, and this gelding got a glowing report from Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Vesce for his half-mile workout of May 17. KING GATTO, REFER, and SALEM LOOP are additional spread possibilities for the multi-race exotics.
The positioning of race 5 – a maiden special-weight turf sprint for New York-breds – dashes any thoughts of playing the pick five or early pick four as there are several first-time starters that look like they could be OK, but it’s hard to establish a pecking order without any idea of how they’re being bet. On the blind, I’m interested in PAYMENT TERMS, a Freud gelding whose dam has produced four grass winners, and DRAFT DAY, a Kitten’s Joy colt with a 353 Tomlinson rating for turf.
In race 6, LADY ELI looks like a free bingo square to start off the late pick four in the $200,000 Wonder Again Stakes, which serves as a prep for the $1 million Belmont Oaks on July 4. She comes off a terrific seasonal debut in the Appalachian and looks like the shortest-priced favorite on the card.
In race 7, I may try to get ROYAL POSSE in the exacta and key him with TAPIN MOJO, MCKENZIES WAY, and/or TENKILLER KID. Royal Posse is third back from a layoff after chasing wide against last week’s Mike Lee winner Ostrolenka and drops to a significantly softer spot, along with a switch back to Javier Castellano, who was aboard for three good performances last fall.
Finally, RUNWAY GIANT drops to a claimer for the first time in race 8, a $50,000 turf sprint restricted to non-winners of three races lifetime. It’s an inflated $50,000 race where most have run for half that price, and the filly appears the class of the field.