Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, May 24
Options are limited by field size through the early portion of the program, as we go 6 x 5 x 5 x 5 through the first four races Sunday, including a potential $5 exacta of ROOM FOR ME (1) over LA MADRINA (3) in race 3.
Things open up a bit with race 5, a restricted-claiming sprint on the inner turf, where I’m mildly interested in taking a flier with ON A STAR (1), who makes her seasonal debut, along with a potentially significant trainer change to Richard Vega, a low-profile conditioner who has won at a 37 percent clip with a $4.39 R.O.I. when sending out new acquisitions in 2014-15. She showed some versatility in terms of running style last year and lacked room the only time she was worse than second in four outings on the grass. I’ll key her with NO TUNES (2), POP OF COLOR (3), LAMONTAGNE (7), and JENNYS CREEK (8) in exotics.
Race 6 goes with a good-sized group of 11 restricted-claiming routers on the Widener turf, and it looks like a good spot for MUTASAAWY (5), a Joe Sharp-trained newcomer to the circuit who is back in a claimer for the first time since haltered from a win at the Fair Grounds. The one problem I have with this stretch-running gelding is an apparent lack of early speed in the matchup, as the only horse to have been anywhere near the early lead lately is ARCTIC SLOPE (4), and that was at 1 1/2 miles. Because of this, it may pay to take a closer look at LEAD SINGER (6), now listed as a new gelding for his first start since last summer and first for up-and-coming trainer Tom Morley. Lead Singer won over the course at the same distance early last June and was quick enough to duel for the lead at seven furlongs last spring, so perhaps he can take advantage of the situation.
Finally, ARBITRATOR (2) looms a fairly reliable-looking key in race 7, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. It’s wide open after that, and there are a number of second-time starters with the potential to move forward significantly. The ones I find most interesting are ABDAAR (5), who got a glowing report from ace Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Vesce for a recent workout, and CLOSING BELL (9), who is turf to dirt for Bill Mott, after posting a 12-length gain through the late stages of his debut.