Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, May 10
While there are some good races on the main track, notably Palace against Palace Malice in the Diablo Stakes, the grass races on Sunday’s card at Belmont are what I’m most interested in for wagering purposes.
Two of them – the second and fifth races – bookend the early pick four, and races 7 and 9 are in the late pick four, so those inclined might want to mix and match and buy Mom some tickets on each sequence.
Race 2
Assuming continued cooperation from Mother Nature, the five entered for the main track only will be scratched, leaving a field of seven open $40,000 claimers intended for the Widener course at seven furlongs.
LOOKING COOL (12) rates a long look at anything close to his morning-line odds of 7-2 as he makes his first start for trainer Joe Sharp, a former assistant to Mike Maker who has won at a 32 percent clip with new acquisitions since going out on his own. The 5-year-old horse was ambitiously spotted in the Charles Town Classic three weeks ago, finishing a respectable sixth at 111-1, and could catch some bettors napping as he switches back to the grass, where he is 1-0-0 from five starts.
Only one of those grass races, an off-the-board finish in a stake on yielding ground, shows in his current block of past performances, but those with access to his lifetime record through DRF Formulator can see that two other attempts came on yielding turf, too, and that he is 1 for 2 on firm going, the win coming in a third-level allowance at Churchill Downs “off the page” in 2013.
Race 5
This overflow field of 3-year-old maiden fillies offers a wide range of possibilities as there isn’t a whole lot of recent grass form to go on. I expect KITZYS ROCKET (3) to take a lot of money after being beaten less than two lengths in each of her first two turf routes at Gulfstream Park, but she has exhibited little early speed so far, and the pace complexion of this matchup is murky at best.
While a slow pace also could work against my top two published selections, ELATED (10) and MATTY’S WONDERGIRL (9), I may have to bite the bullet and consider the latter for play, provided she’s in the neighborhood of the 12-1 morning line.
I’m also giving consideration to WILD STREET GIRL (1), who is listed at 20-1 after flashing speed and finishing fifth in one dirt sprint at Aqueduct to begin her career. She is a half-sister to Cougar Ridge, a multiple winner on turf, and it’s possible she might be able to control the tempo assuming a clean getaway from the inside post.
Race 7
UPGRADE (4) and EXCLUISIVE STRIKE (9) are hard-knocking 8-year-olds who have each made 40 starts and banked just north or south of $500,000. They are tough to separate and figure close with ALL INCLUDED (12), who also is returning from a layoff in this competitive optional claimer and overcame a similar wide draw to win over the same course and distance at Belmont’s 2014 spring meet. I’m inclined to stick with those three in multi-race exotics.
Race 9
This maiden claimer looks like another place to cast a wide net. Although he has shown little in four starts so far, REACH FOR YIELD (11) is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Chad Brown, who has been on a tear to start the meet. I’m going to key around a different horse also returning from a layoff, JEREMY’S SONG (6), who struck a fallen rival and lost his rider in one attempt on the grass back in early 2014. He has been gelded for his return and picks up Javier Castellano, and his 335 Tomlinson rating is tied for tops in the field.
I’m also using GET OUT OF TOWN (5), who shifts back to turf after displaying improved speed second time back from a short layoff; and KING GATTO (4), whose Florida turf form compares favorably in this spot.