Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, June 28
How I’ll play Belmont on Sunday remains a work in progress, depending on the timing of whatever Mother Nature has in store for the Long Island area. At this writing, heavy rain and thunderstorms were forecast as a good bet to pummel the track starting sometime late afternoon or early evening Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning. So it seems as though four scheduled turf races – the second, fourth, eighth, and ninth – are in serious jeopardy, while the main track could wind up a sealed and sloppy quagmire or a harrowed drying-out “good” depending on the timing of things.
Discretion being the better part of valor given the likely course of events, I’m keeping an open mind about things and making a handicapping pass through the card with the idea of looking for potential wet-track move-ups. Here is what we have:
Race 1 – Smart Alex (3) improved several lengths on a sloppy track second time out, but that was on Aqueduct’s inner dirt back Jan. 4, and she hasn’t been out since then. There isn’t much early speed in the field, though, and she should be forwardly placed based on her two starts. Of course, I’ll Take Charge (1) looms a heavy favorite off her runner-up finish first out, but the $2.2 million half-sister to Will Take Charge was off slow that day and is drawn on the rail this time.
Race 2 – Should this restricted claimer come off the turf, Againsome (5) put up his lifetime Beyer Speed Figure top in the slop at Belmont last fall. Steve’s Moonshot (4) is entered for grass but has a pedigree (by Malibu Moon, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) that bodes well for wet dirt.
Race 3 – No matter the footing, La Verdad (6) basically has to fall down to lose the Dancin Renee.
Race 4 – Tough to play the pick five or early pick four with this 2-year-old maiden dash buried in the mix, but you can get a glimpse of the betting action before deciding whether or not to get involved with pick three plays on races 3-4-5 or 4-5-6. Exclusivo (10) and Magna Light (11), the uncoupled dirt-only entrants from Rudy Rodriguez, have respective wet-track Tomlinson ratings of 293 and 432. Osceola Pond (1) and Manhattan Dan (3) boast recent bullet workouts from the gate on dirt, but the former is rated at a low 290 on the Tomlinson scale, while the latter tops the lineup with a 404.
Race 5 – On a wet track, I would downgrade the chances of Time for Angie (2), who is in from Southern California and never has run on off-going.
Race 6 – Muck and mire would add a big element of uncertainty to this preliminary allowance, since contenders such as Mexikoma (2), Strike Tone (4), Unbridled Juan (6), and Day of Fury (8) never have run under those conditions. Inca Saint (3), Gridley Here (5), and American Soldier (7) have won on wet tracks.
Race 7 – What do you do when the top-rated runner for wet tracks is a shipper from Turf Paradise? That’s the deal with Grand Full Moon (4), now with Parx-based trainer Keith Nations and making his first start since February; he fits in this $32,000 claiming sprint off his best races, and probably belongs in multi-race exotic spread plays, at least as a backup. Copernicus (8) relished sealed mud at Aqueduct four races back, winning big with a career Beyer top.
Race 8 – If this optional claimer scheduled for the turf is rained off, the winner is most likely someone among Noble Moon (1), Bowman’s Beast (12), Matterhorn (13), and Cease (16). Noble Moon was far back in one slop start last fall, but that was in a graded stakes.
Race 9 – Turf or dirt, the one to catch in this New York-bred maiden claimer is El Viejo Verde (9), which they have done the last 10 times. Loose Money (1) has been beaten better than 40 lengths in two starts, but a 428 wet-track rating makes him worth a second look at boxcar odds.