Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, June 21
Incredibly, we haven’t lost a single turf race to wet weather since the meet began April 29, or one Triple Crown winner ago. That streak is likely to come to an end Father’s Day as the forecast says rain is just about a sure thing with a good chance for some significant thunderstorms.
This makes for some uncertainty as far as mapping out a strategy for the day is concerned, particularly as it concerns the four scheduled grass races – the third, sixth, seventh, and eighth – all of which are sprints, including both divisions of the New York Stallion Series.
I have to think a switch to wet dirt would help the chances of POSSESSED and SECURED POSITION in the Spectacular Bid division, which is race 3. The latter shipped in off Monmouth workouts to win his debut here last summer, and it’s worth noting his subsequent Tyro placing to Sapling repeater Souper Colossal took place on a drying-out track that had started out sloppy and had just been upgraded to “fast.”
The Cupecoy’s Joy division (race 6) kicks off the late pick four. Should it be run on a sealed track, I would downgrade my top choice FREUDIE ANNE, who is one of five fillies in the field sired by Freud. She has run well on turf and dirt but did not like sealed mud when last by 13 lengths in the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes on this track last fall. Another Freud filly, PERFECT FREUD, rates an upgrade in the event of a surface switch, judging from a big win with a lifetime Beyer top on the main track first off the claim.
Should race 8 be rained off the grass, it’s likely Christophe Clement will scratch DOWSE’S BEACH and instead go with BLUEGRASS FLASH, who would be making his second start back from a layoff and stretching out to a suitably longer sprint. Bluegrass ran well on sealed Belmont strips three times last year, and I could see mixing and matching him with the logical dirt-only contenders LONGFOR THE CITY, MIGHTY ZEALOUS, and CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD.
In the finale, I have PECORINO behind MARCH TOO and INVASION POINT, but muck and more would make me revise those rankings and put Pecorino on top. His two races on sealed dirt last year were among his best efforts.