Litfin: How I'd play Belmont Stakes Day
ELMONT, N.Y. – There’s something for horseplayers of all wagering persuasions on this 13-race Belmont Stakes card, whether they like to shoot for the moon in the four guaranteed multirace exotic pools or make solid percentage plays on legit favorites, or both.
After a couple of cloudy and raw days, weather conditions are forecast to be ideal, with fast and firm conditions and temperatures warming to more seasonable levels in the mid-70s.
Unless something is seen to the contrary very early, what I generally look for on these big-race days is a main track that plays quickly and carries speed quite well. The rails have been taken down on the turf courses this week, so ground-saving trips become even more advantageous than usual.
The pick five with a $500,000 guarantee looks pretty straightforward through the initial legs, where STANFORD (1) and DONWORTH (5) should get me past the opener, and WISECRACKER (2) and COMPETITIVE EDGE (3) loom as potential singles in races 2 and 3. From there, it’s a spread in the 13-horse Jaipur, followed by a cash-out leg that uses only WEDDING TOAST (2) and UNTAPABLE (4) in the Ogden Phipps.
Since I’m a sucker for turf-to-dirt horses, I’ll probably find V. E. DAY (8) irresistible in the Brooklyn, especially since last year’s Travers winner has already been successful twice with that surface switch.
As far as the $1.5 million late pick four (races 8-11), here are the contenders I still have in the mix as of midafternoon Friday:
JUST A GAME: SANDIVA (2), DISCREET MARQ (3), COFFEE CLIQUE (4), FILIMBI (6), BALL DANCING (8), TEPIN (9).
Likely keys: 4 and 8.
MET MILE: PRIVATE ZONE (1), TONALIST (4), TAMARKUZ (5), WICKED STRONG (6), BAYERN (7), HONOR CODE (9).
Likely keys: 4 and 9.
MANHATTAN: HYPER (1), TWILIGHT ECLIPSE (2), FINNEGANS WAKE (3), WAR DANCER (4), BIG BLUE KITTEN (5).
Likely keys: 2 and 5.
BELMONT: MADEFROMLUCKY (3), AMERICAN PHAROAH (5), FROSTED (6), MATERIALITY (8).
Likely key: 5.
And because I just can’t get enough of a good thing, and also because I like the races, I’ll probably fool around in late doubles keying TAGHLEEB (7) in race 12 and MATTERHORN (11) in the nightcap. And with a scheduled post of 8:12 p.m., I do mean nightcap.