Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Oct. 4
Very carefully, that’s how – because it’s a rainy Saturday at Belmont Park, where five races have been switched to a sloppy main track.
Only the Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes for 3-year-olds (race 9) remains on the inner turf course, which is labeled soft. Ordinarily under such conditions, you’d want to give the European invaders a long look in the Hill Prince, but this is a rather odd situation, in which the three invaders from across the pond – Blacktype, Cabral, and Sloane Avenue – are a combined 0 for 6 on grass, and 6 for 10 on all-weather surfaces.
As ever, and especially in the muck and mire over “Big Sandy,” it’s going to be vitally important to watch the early races carefully to see whether there are any obvious trends regarding favorable paths and/or running styles.
Cavorting and El Kabeir, the respective 5-2 morning-line favorites in the Frizette (race 6) and Champagne (race 8), both break from the rail. This can be a treacherous position in Belmont’s one-mile races, which begin in a no man’s land, where the chute joins up with the clubhouse turn, and it’s not uncommon to see horses from the one-hole instinctually duck into the open space.
For the record, horses from outer posts and paths appeared to have very much the best of things when the week began Wednesday. However, things appeared to even out through the racing of Thursday and Friday.
So we’re sort of in wait-and-see mode as of late morning, but here’s a checklist of horses that have either run well through the off-going before and/or have noteworthy Tomlinson ratings for wet tracks (in parentheses):
2nd race: Dickens (432); Heading to Boca (421); Hi Speed Chase (401)
3rd race: Accord (401); Neilinger (404); Class Will Tell (415); Tiz Jeweled (407)
4th race: Slim Shadey (won off-the-turf Elkwood Stakes in the slop)
5th race: Celebrated Talent (449); Giant Fox (two fastest races on sealed muddy tracks)
6th race: Cavorting (449); Wonder Gal (451); Condo Commando (Spinaway win in slop)
7th race: Los Borrachos (425); Dyker Beach (399); First Bid (435)
8th race: Upstart (416); Daredevil (debut win in the mud at Belmont)
10th race: Groupthink (95 Beyer winning only start in the mud)
11th race: Watergate (398; best race was in slop)