Litfin: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Oct. 11

No fooling, this was my horoscope in the morning paper:

“You initially might be hesitant to express your opinions, but by the afternoon, you will open up. Be careful about what you say; otherwise, it could hurt another individual, depending on his or her life story.”

Given the reprise of last Saturday’s rainy and sloppy conditions, this seems like sage advice.

With the exception of the Knickerbocker (race 8), the other races scheduled for the grass – five in all – have been washed off to the main track.Two key points from last Saturday:

As illustrated by Condo Commando, just because a horse skips over one type of sloppy track doesn’t necessarily mean it will do the same thing on another one.

As is often the case when Big Sandy gets a soaking, horses in outer paths had all the best of it. Several horses that looked good on paper, notably Cavorting in the Frizette and El Kabeir in the Champagne, were compromised by their rail draws and inside trips.

So, while there is a triple carryover of $138,241 in the pick six, and a $300,000 guaranteed late pick four, it’s foolhardy to advocate any concrete strategies about the second half of the card until we’ve seen how things go early, which is where DRF Live comes in handy.

With scratches riddling the program, you have to go all the way to the nightcap to find a field as large as eight. Some thoughts on what’s left:

Race 2: While I made Bowman’s Beast the “best bet,” the Parx shipper is on the rail, which throws up the yellow caution flag. If he can’t get off the inside, watch him closely to get a gauge on the surface. Divine Child, whom I have second, gets a longer look breaking toward the outside.

Race 3: Another top choice, Master Yank, is on the rail, and his main rivals for the lead, Okey Dokey Smokey and Seldom Seen Slim, are two and three doors down. This cheap restricted claimer is another watch-and-learn race for me.

Race 4: It’s always dangerous to be against Dawly, who has been no worse than second in his last 11 starts against non-stakes foes. Having said that, I’ll probably try to get Integrity loose on the lead from the outside stall in this off-the-turf mile if he’s 2-1 or so; there’s just no one to stop him from setting up shop wherever the best footing is, and he may be a linchpin for me in rolling pick threes.

Race 6: This maiden sprint obviously goes through Ready for Rye, who is drawn outside after chasing Breeders’ Futurity winner Carpe Diem in a promising debut. There are several fast-working first-timers in the mix, though; and the other experienced runner, Kick Off, is getting Lasix after beating half the field behind El Kabeir on a speed-conducive track at Saratoga. Kick Off might fall through the cracks, and/or some newcomer may take money, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Race 8: Plainview is going to the front in this soggy Knickerbocker, and while he would prefer to hear his feet rattle, his task got much easier when Za Approval came out. He’s a pace play for me at anything like 4-1 in a short field of six.