Litfin: How I'd play Belmont Park on Sunday, Oct. 4
After Belmont Park was inundated with rain the past few days, it’s rather unlikely that any of Sunday’s five scheduled turf races – the first, second, fifth, seventh, and ninth – will remain on the grass. There was no official word about that as of this writing, though, and so for purposes of this how-to-play exercise, we can’t assume anything. You know what happens when we do that. Therefore, we shall concentrate on the races we know will be run on the main track.
Race 3 – Not much to do with this maiden claimer for 2-year-old fillies until getting a look at the betting and prerace physical appearances, as four of the eight are first-time starters, including a Todd Pletcher-trained entry of Voided Contract and Lost Raven, who appear to have breezed in tandem through five-furlong workouts on Tuesday. Kalabaka looks like the one to beat after missing in a photo four weeks ago, but sometimes a hard-fought debut like that can leave a horse a bit flat the second time out.
Race 4 – Although four of the fillies in this 2-year-old maiden special weight mile have recorded a higher Beyer Speed Figure than Felini, I anticipate that this Godolphin/Darley homebred half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner It’s Tricky will improve considerably off the 51 she earned for a fifth-place finish in her debut. She was coupled with fellow newbie and third-place finisher Libreta that day, and the latter returned last week to graduate impressively with first-time Lasix. Felini is now first-time Lasix as well and should relish stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile.
Race 6 – This is the second division of Felini’s race, with seven more nicely bred and well-connected maidens going a mile. On paper, Inheritance and Carella are the logical favorites after running second and third in a seven-furlong tilt at Saratoga four weeks ago. Inheritance was bet to 2-1 in a 10-horse field that day and was within a length of the lead through the opening fractions. It looks as though she is capable of getting to the front early, as the other five experienced runners, including Carella, all were positioned in the rear half of the field in their first and only starts.
Race 8 – Clothes Fall Off has been second-best in three attempts at this preliminary allowance level and gets some class relief after a tough trip in the Grade 2 Prioress behind her multiple stakes-winning stablemate Cavorting. She is the one to beat, but it’s a short field of six without a lot of early speed, which lends an air of uncertainty to the matchup. An additional X factor is True Romance, who makes her first start since a hopelessly wide trip in a five-furlong turf stakes race at Gulfsteam Park last winter. Her first two career starts at Belmont last October were sharp, and she has trained purposefully at her Monmouth Park base.
Paris Bikini, a wire-to-wire debut winner here last fall, may try to steal it up front. Her chances will be best evaluated after observing how the track has played through the earlier races.