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Aqueduct

Litfin: How I'd play Aqueduct on Sunday, Nov. 30

Dave Litfin|Nov 29, 2014

After a Saturday that featured the last four graded stakes of the season, things will drop off noticeably on the final day of racing over the main track.

The richest race on the card is race 4, a $60,000 maiden special at 6 1/2 furlongs for 2-year-old fillies. Eight of the nine are first-time starters, notably Sweet Corine, a homebred half-sister to Verrazano. The one filly with a race under her belt is Egyptian Magic, who was beaten more than 15 lengths in the mud first time out.

The positioning of that maiden race means bettors eyeing the early pick four and the pick five lack access to information about betting action and physical appearance.

Three turf races are scheduled, but they are approached with trepidation in the wake of Wednesday’s storm that raised the total of off-the-grass races to 39 at the meet through Saturday. Two of Sunday’s scheduled turf races (7th and 9th) are in the late pick four.

From a wagering standpoint, several dirt races are difficult to get worked up about.

Those who haven’t had enough of Keen’s Cupla can bet him back in the opener nine days after his third straight runner-up finish. Among six opposing the morning-line favorite is Hidden Warrior, the likely second choice, who will be 6 years old in a few weeks and takes his seventh crack at statebred maidens.

Have at it.

In race 3, Socialsaul looks for his fifth straight win in six weeks off a claim by David Jacobson, opposed by five rivals in questionable form.

In race 5, B Shanny is the one to catch and beat as he lands in the bargain-basement bin for $10,000 after 10 straight losses since taking a small stakes race at Finger Lakes in 2013. The main stretch threat is Broad Rule, who has lost nine straight since starting the year by winning the $100,000 Fire Plug at Laurel on Jan. 4. The one viable alternative is Coalition, who is ripe for a regression after posting a new Beyer Speed Figure top in his 33rd career outing all of 10 days ago.

The late pick four begins with a New York-bred maiden claimer in which a dozen 2-year-old fillies include eight who have already lost at the level. The race probably goes through a couple of special-weight dropdowns, Yourcreditisgood and Accelebrate, who cut back to six furlongs after less-than-inspiring performances.

If race 7 comes off the grass, I’ll be interested to see what sort of price Midnight Taboo is. He would be getting off the rail after being left with too much to do behind a slow pace 11 days ago and would rate a look at 4-1 or so in his second try for $35,000.

I don’t see any way around David Jacobson’s entry of Dyker Beach and Depeche Chat in race 8, unless it’s the Parx shipper Bowman’s Beast. The latter’s best races come on the lead, however, and the presence of the speedy Bernie the Maestro poses pace problems for him.

Shaunna Alexandra is unproven past six furlongs but looks loose up front if race 9 goes to the main track. Otherwise, you can throw a blanket over several of these fillies and mares, with the improved Miss Motivation a possibility to be in the hunt at morning-line odds of 20-1.

All in all, it is a great day for football.

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