Litfin: How I'd play Aqueduct on Saturday, Nov. 15

I’m going to take the opportunity to observe the main track through an early double with fields of six and seven after scratches. The track was a harrowed “good” throughout Friday’s card, and early speed took a 0-for-8 collar, as the only front-running winner was Party Now in the day’s only turf race to stay on a yielding course.

The turf is yielding again and will be in use only for race 5, a one-mile allowance for New York-breds, and race 7, the Red Smith Handicap, which is the last graded turf stakes race of the season in New York.

Race 3 is a New York-bred maiden claimer that throws a monkey wrench into any possible pick five or early pick four plays because there’s just a dearth of fast-track form to go on, thanks to an exceptionally wet autumn. Four of the five 2-year-olds with experience come off races in the slop, including morning-line favorite B.B.’s Remington, who improved in the off going the second time out but was far back in his debut on fast footing 15 days earlier. What version do we get Saturday? Your guess is as good as mine.

Meanwhile, Chasing Bubbles is the only one who was on a fast track last time, and he’s getting off the rail after leading to deep stretch second time out; the Beyer Speed Figure was only a 36, though, so any among the four first-time starters may have found an attractive spot. I would expect someone among Wild Freud, Ziwiye, Leverage, and Golden Bay to take money.

Bobby V. could start off some pick threes for me, as he goes first time off a claim by David Jacobson, who scratched the other half of the entry, Patriot’s Voyage. When Jacobson does this, it seems like the horse he leaves in wins an extremely high percentage of the time.

Changewilldoyagood is the one horse in race 5 whom I’d like to own, as he exhibits a Beyer pair-up in his first two starts, which took place on good and yielding turf. However, I try not to make it a practice to back morning-line favorites breaking from a disadvantageous post position, and that’s the predicament with this colt, who starts from the 10 hole with a short run to the clubhouse turn.

Runaway Posse has a nice development line, too, after consecutive improved races since switched to grass and projects for a ground-saving trip from the inside post; if he’s really going to be somewhere near his 5-1 early line, I’m in.

For multirace exotic purposes, I’m looking at using four in the Red Smith, leaning on Big Blue Kitten and Legendary as “A” horses and backing up with Dynamic Sky and Unitarian. I would like the latter more on good-to-firm ground, but I don’t think it will be as boggy as it was at Keeneland for the Sycamore, when he just never got rolling at 2-1. He’ll be more like 10-1 in this spot.

Just about anything goes in the off-the-turf finale, where the top dirt Beyer is a 32. It may be noteworthy that Linda Rice has left Hot City Girl in the race. This filly pressed the pace from post 12 when unveiled at seven furlongs on turf last month, and her pedigree – by City Zip and out of a Hook and Ladder mare – indicates she may be better on dirt. I would take 5-2 to find out.