Litfin: How I'd play Aqueduct on Saturday, Dec. 6

The weatherman says rain is a sure thing, so we have to assume the inner track will be something other than fast Saturday.

One benefit of an exceptionally wet autumn is that many horses have established some form over the off-going.

Of the five 2-year-old maiden fillies with experience in the opener, four already have run over a wet track, including Midnight Citra, who gets the rail stretching out off a top-figure placing and looks like a solid favorite. The other one to use is Bonnet Plume, first-time Lasix for the red-hot Tom Albertrani and boasting a strong 437 Tomlinson rating for wet tracks.

Similarly, all five of the experienced juvenile maiden fillies in race 2 have raced on a wet track at least once. Along with Midnight Citra, we should get more of a gauge on how the rail is playing by watching Kathy’s Honor, a good second in her recent debut for a barn that has sent out a trio of 2-year-old maiden winners since last Saturday.

The middle portion of the program has a chalky look to it, and if we get past the early double, it may be possible to hit the pick five on a shoestring:

* There are only six horses in race 3, raising the possibility of simply “buying” the race.

* In race 4, Son of Dixie, Sideways Vision, and Grand Strand look to be a cut above the other claimers in search of their second career win.

* In race 5, Big Lute comes off a runner-up finish at 1-5 and will be a similar price taking a 50 percent price drop as a Beyer Speed Figure layover.

Starting off the late pick four, race 6 is going to take a hit in terms of scratches. Several prominent contenders will be unable to ship from Finger Lakes due to a quarantine that went into effect Thursday. My one thought will be to bet someone – anyone – against Groupthink, a seven-time beaten favorite who keeps finding new ways to lose.

My best potential price play comes in race 7, when Spinning for Home goes turf to dirt and returns from a layoff for Michelle Nevin, who has won with better than a third of her starters in both categories the past two years. I’ll tie him up in vertical exotics with Salisbury Knight, another logical contender breaking from the rail Saturday.

Have to wait on scratches for a final analysis of the Garland of Roses, since Joya Real and Winning Image are both cross-entered in the Willa On the Move at Laurel.

In the event Winning Image comes out, that leaves Bridgehampton, who exits two exceptionally fast-paced races, as a lone-speed play.