Litfin: Commissioner following winning pattern
If this were an ordinary race, it would be hard to see past the 3-5 morning-line favorite. But the Belmont Stakes has devolved into one of the most extraordinarily random races on the American racing calendar. Conventional wisdom seldom applies; numerous horses who look great on paper go down in flames, some abysmally, behind hard-to-fathom winners who did little else before or after.
That said, Commissioner looks logical enough, will be a generous price, and might be sitting on a breakthrough performance based on a synergistic combination of a good Beyer Speed Figure pattern and a run-all-day pedigree. The tendency is for distance-bred stretch-runners to mature later than sprinter-milers with natural speed. Commissioner, who has four Belmont winners in his immediate family (A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Touch Gold, and Secretariat) gave a glimpse into his future last August, winning a 1 1/8-mile maiden race in a photo, with a chasm back to the third horse. What he has done since then is win a first-level allowance at Gulfstream in his 3-year-old debut, exit the Triple Crown trail in early spring, and merge back on with an okay second in the local 1 1/8-mile prep. If all of that sounds familiar, it is the same path Drosselmeyer followed to win the 2010 Belmont at 13-1 for the same owners.
Commissioner edged forward slightly to a new top Beyer in the Peter Pan despite running along what appeared to be a deep, sloppy rail that many winners were avoiding, notably the talented but inexperienced Tonalist, who skipped along on the front end on his way to winning the Peter Pan.
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Skipping the Preakness has proven beneficial to a large handful of Kentucky Derby starters coming back on five weeks’ rest in the Belmont. Among those who fit that description, the best fit is Wicked Strong, who edged the plucky Samraat after breaking from post 19 and having trouble early and late. Importantly, Wicked Strong gets to run out of his own stall, and his best races have taken place in New York.
Those of us who weren’t on the bandwagon at 5-2 or 1-2 will find it difficult to endorse California Chrome at odds-on. No Triple Crown winner has faced more than seven horses in the Belmont, and all had raced over the track previously. The heart roots for him to end the drought, but the head says he has a huge target on his back.
Any among Medal Count, Commanding Curve, and Ride On Curlin might be running on late. Samraat is genuine and has logged many stamina-building one-mile workouts since early in the year. His best chance is to grab the lead and slow the pace.