Litfin: Belmont pick four play for Saturday, Sept. 6

As on most Saturdays at Belmont this fall, there is a $300,000-guaranteed pool for the late pick four. All four races in today’s sequence (races 7-10) are scheduled for turf, and there is a 50-50 chance of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. We’re assuming everything remains on the grass. Otherwise, all bets are off.

Race 7

Pending a look at the betting action and prerace appearances concerning these turf-meant 2-year-olds, I’m basically going to divide it as an A team comprised of four second-time starters who showed some ability at Saratoga and a B team of four suitably bred first-time starters; should any of the new faces take significant play, adjustments may be necessary.

A – 3, 4, 7, 8
B – 2, 5, 6, 9

Race 8

Star Channel won three times under today’s $62,500 optional-claiming conditions at 10 furlongs last year and started 2014 by winning the Sunshine Millions Turf off a similar freshening. Red Vine, who posted a 99 Beyer Figure under these circumstances July 4, is the other A. The backups are Arctic North, Capitan Futuro, and Shock Leader.

A – 2, 6
B – 4, 8, 9

Race 9

On turf, and now that Legendary is out, anyone other than Red Rifle or Reflecting would surprise me by winning the Yankee Affair. However, I can’t totally rule out Slim Shadey off his best races in California.

A – 1, 6
B – 2

Race 10

The entrant with the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure is 0 for 21, so you know this is a New York-bred maiden claimer fraught with danger. To my mind, Lil’ Zilla is the most likely winner as she drops back to the level of her June 29 placing first time out this year.

I’m not using top-last-Beyer Mini Muffin, who has already had those 21 chances, as I don’t believe the 6-year-old mare could get the 1 1/16 miles in a moving van. Otherwise, there are several who could manage to reach the wire first based on their best efforts, which look virtually the same.

A – 9
B – 2, 3, 4, 5, 7